000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2100 UTC Thu Jan 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 04N81W to 07N84W to 05N102W. The ITCZ extends from 05N102W to 07N133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 120W and 127W, and from 08N to 11N west of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data shows moderate northerly winds over the Baja California offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, with locally fresh winds off Punta Eugenia. Altimeter data from 1630 UTC indicates 9-11 ft seas in NW swell are occurring in this region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds persist over the central and southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes prevail elsewhere under a weak pressure pattern. Offshore high pressure will prevail west of the region through the weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California and over the Gulf of California will diminish by Fri. Long period NW swell over the Baja California waters will gradually decay through Fri. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri into Sat. Another round of NW swell will move SE across the region Fri night through Sun, followed by yet another NW swell event Mon through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NE winds over the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate N winds were noted near the Gulf of Panama, while light to gentle winds dominate the remaining forecast waters. High pressure building SE over the Caribbean will support fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing over the Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama region will strengthen slightly Fri night into this weekend, then gradually diminish late Sun through early week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A persistent mid to upper-level low/trough west of 140W supports a surface trough from 07N137W to 13N134W. The pressure gradient between this trough and 1026 mb high pressure centered near 30N129W maintains fresh to strong NE winds from 07N to 19N west of 128W, based on recent scatterometer data. The trough is likely to weaken and drift slowly westward during the next few days. Expect this area to remain convectively active for another day or two, with fresh to locally strong winds near the trough axis and 8-11 ft seas. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage west of 125W early next week as high pressure strengthens north of the region. Elsewhere, seas 8 ft or greater in NW swell will dominate the forecast waters west of 110W through tonight, then decay on Fri. Another set of long period NW swell over the NW portion will propagate SE through the weekend. A weakening cold front will move into the far NW waters Sat, then stall and dissipate Sat night into Sun. $$ Reinhart