000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1443 UTC Thu Jan 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N73W to 04N81W to 08N85W to 05N103W. The ITCZ continues from 05N103W to 08N131W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident within an area bounded by 06N120W to 08N131W to 15N130W to 12N124W to 06N120W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 14N W of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds W of Baja California and over the Gulf of California will become gentle to moderate this weekend as high pressure W of the forecast waters weakens slightly. Long period NW swell will reach Baja California waters late Fri night, then sweep SE this weekend. A new round of NW swell will arrive in Baja waters Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure ridging SE over the Caribbean will support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama region will strengthen slightly Fri night, then gradually decrease through Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A vigorous mid to upper-level low depicted in water vapor imagery near 12N145W has induced development of a surface trough from 07N136W to 13N134W. The trough splits the ITCZ and supports all of the convection mentioned earlier in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. The gradient between 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N129W and the surface trough is sustaining an area of 20 to 25 kt northeast winds from 11N to 17N between 128W and 139W, based on scatterometer data. The trough is likely to weaken and drift slowly W during the next few days. Expect this area to remain convectively active for another day or two, with fresh to locally strong winds near the trough axis. Corresponding seas are expected to be in the 9 to 11 ft range. Elsewhere, seas greater than 8 ft in NW swell will dominate the discussion area west of about 115W through tonight. Swell will decay and diminish in coverage on Fri. Another episode of long period NW swell will reach the northwest part of the area later today, then propagate SE and decay into the weekend. No significant cold fronts are expected to dip south of 30N the next five days. $$ CAM