000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jan 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 08N86W to 04N95W to 05N102W. The ITCZ continues from 05N102W to 09N130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 06N to 17N between 123W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure west of Baja California is supporting moderate NW winds along the Pacific coast of Baja and Gulf of California. This wind pattern should continue for the remainder of the week as the high and its associated ridge remain nearly stationary. Long period NW swell will decay through Fri, with sea heights slowly subsiding. Another round of long period NW swell from a approaching cold front will reach Baja California waters late Fri night and build wave heights to 8 ft or greater there during the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A ridge in the western Caribbean will support fresh occasionally strong NE winds in the Papagayo region today. Winds will taper off over the Gulf of Papagayo during the remainder of the week as the ridge weakens. Moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama region will strengthen slightly Fri night, then gradually decrease through Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A vigorous upper-level trough depicted on water vapor imagery near 145W is approaching the area, acting to enhance development of a surface trough near 135W between 05N-15N. Satellite imagery shows widespread shower activity from 06N to 17N west of 123W. The gradient between a ridge along 28N and the surface trough is sustaining an area of 20-25 kt northeast winds from 12N to 17N west of 135W, based on scatterometer data. The trough is likely to remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days, and weaken slightly. Expect this area to remain convectively active for another day or two, with fresh to locally strong winds near the trough axis. Seas are expected to be in the 10-12 ft range. Elsewhere, seas greater than 8 ft in NW swell will dominate the discussion area west of about 115W through tonight. Swell will decay and diminish in coverage on Fri. Another episode of long period NW swell will reach the northwest part of the area later today, then propagate southeastward and decay into the weekend. A dying front will reach NW waters on Sat night. No significant cold fronts are expected to dip south of 30N the next five days. $$ Mundell