000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1343 UTC Wed Jan 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is shifting eastward. This is causing the pressure gradient over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to decrease. Minimal gale force winds over the Gulf will quickly fall to strong by this afternoon and to light and variable tonight. No follow on gale force gap wind events are expected during the upcoming week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this Gale Warning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N81W to low pres 1012 mb near 07N88W to 03.5N97W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N97W to 08N132W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 100W and 111W. An upper-level low centered near 15N145W is interacting with the ITCZ to generate scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 150 nm either side of a line from 04N140W to 15N130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details regarding the gale force gap wind event that is winding down in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure west of Baja California is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds along the Pacific Coast of Baja. This wind pattern should continue for the remainder of this week as the high remains in place. Winds are light to moderate over the northern Gulf of California and moderate over the southern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected over the central and southern Gulf of California tonight through Thu night as high pressure builds over the U.S. Great Basin. Long-period NW swell propagating across the region will reach the Revillagigedo Islands this afternoon. Seas will then slowly subside through Fri as the swell decays. Another round of long period NW swell associated with an approaching cold front will reach the Baja California waters beginning late Fri night and build seas to 8 ft or greater there during the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A high pressure ridge over the western Caribbean will continue to support strong NE to E winds over and downstream of the Papagayo region through Thu morning, strongest at night. Seas will build to 8 ft each morning following the peak winds. Winds will taper over the Gulf of Papagayo during the remainder of the week as the ridge weakens. Swell generated by the current Tehuantepec gale force wind event will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through tonight, then seas will subside Thu as the swell decay. Moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama region will become fresh to locally strong Fri night, then gradually decrease to moderate by Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of fresh to strong northeast winds is present roughly from 06N to 20N, west of 125W, as 1025 mb high pressure resides over the NW portion of the discussion area. These winds are likely to increase during the next couple days as the ridge remains in place and low-level troughing is induced north of the ITCZ in the vicinity of 135W by an an upper-level low just to the W. Otherwise, combined seas greater than 8 ft in prevalent long period NW swell will dominate the region W of 115W, with seas running between 11 and 12 ft in the vicinity of the strongest winds. Another set of long period NW swell will reach the northwest part of the area Thu, then propagate SE and decay during the upcoming weekend. The cold front ushering the swell into the region is expected to weaken as it crosses the far northern waters Sat and Sun. $$ CAM