000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1314 UTC Sun Jan 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A stronger and much border gale force gap wind event is expected across the Tehuantepec region tonight through Tue night. This will be associated with a cold front moving quickly SE across the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure building across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind the cold front, will provide a very tight pressure gradient over the area, an bring an increase in winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are forecast to rapidly increase to 40 kt tonight, and to 45 kt Mon night. Seas will peak 18 or 19 ft Mon night during the period of the strongest winds. Swell generated from this event will produce a plume of 8 ft or greater seas that will extend beyond 10N110W. Marine interest transiting across or in the vicinity of the of the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Tue night should be aware of this upcoming wind event, and take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this Gale Warning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 06N77W to 04N80W to 06N87W to 06N98W. The ITCZ continues from 06N98W to 07N113W to 06N122W to 07N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 06N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 84W and 96W, from 05N to 08N between 108W and 121W, and from 07N to 10N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more information on the upcoming gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, forecast to be near storm force. A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California and extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along western Mexico will continue to support moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds off the coast of Baja California with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. These marine conditions will likely persist through early Tue. By late Tue, a new set of long period NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia, building seas to 10 or 11 ft. This swell event, with seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate across the entire offshore waters W of Baja California by late Wed, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean will continue to support strong to near gale force NE to E winds across and downstream of the Papagayo region through Tue. Winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas will build to 10 ft during the period of peak winds. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail across the region most of the forecast period. The strong trades across the SW Caribbean are also supporting fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama mainly at night through Mon night with downstream seas building to 6-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed on the 1200 UTC surface map near 28N137W with a cold front extending SW to near 17N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side of the low/front. The low pres will move to the east-northeast and is forecast to reaches a position near 28N131W by early Mon morning, and near 29N122W by early Tue morning while gradually weakening. A new set of long period NW swell will follow this system. Seas are expected to build to 12 to 15 ft W of a line from 30N132W bt Mon afternoon. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring an increase in the trade winds by Tue morning, particularly from 10N to 14N W of 132W. In this area, expect fresh to strong NE trade winds and seas building to 12 or 13 ft. $$ GR