000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jan 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will maintain strong to minimal gale force N winds across the Tehuantepec region through Sun. Seas in the range of 8-11 ft will reach several hundred miles downstream of the Gulf, mixing with longer period SW swell. A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico today and Mon, inducing a stronger and much broader gale wind event across the Tehuantepec region Sun night through Tue night, then diminishing on Wed morning. Winds will peak around 40 kt, with seas building to 18 ft. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this gale warning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 04N77W to 05N87W to 05N97W. The ITCZ continues from 05N98W to 07N111W to 07N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N E of 79W, from 05N to 10N between 108W and 120W, and from 02N to 10N W of 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the latest gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California and extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along western Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh N to NE winds off the coast of Baja California and at the entrance of the Gulf of California through Sun night. During this period, fresh to strong winds will prevail in the central and southern Gulf of California. A center of high pressure will develop west of Punta Eugenia Sun night, which will slightly strengthen while it shifts SSE. This will support fresh to occasionally strong winds off Cabo Corrientes into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach Baja California Norte and Guadalupe Island Tue and Tue night, accompanied by NW swell of 8-10 ft, before stalling and dissipating Wed. Strong winds will be likely in the Sebastian Vizcaino Bay Wed night through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A strong ridge over the SW N Atlc extending SSW across the northern Caribbean will continue to support strong to near gale force NE to E winds across and downstream of the Papagayo region through Wed. Seas will build to 11 ft during the period of peak winds. The pressure gradient responsible for the gap wind events in southern Mexico and Central America is also supporting fresh to locally strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama through later this morning with downstream seas building to 6-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An elongated area of low pressure prevails over the NW forecast waters. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicate SE winds to near gale force ahead of the trough, which coincides with the latest SCATSAT scatterometer pass. The area of low pressure is associated with a vigorous, negatively tilted mid/upper level trough moving east of 140W to the north of 25N. This will allow the area of low pressure to deepen and develop a consolidated center today. Locally gale force winds are likely today in the vicinity of the low. Farther south, scatterometer satellite data show moderate to fresh trade winds between the ITCZ and 20N, west of 110W. Concurrent altimeter satellite data indicate seas of 8 to 9 ft in the area of trade winds. The low center will continue to the east-northeast, and reach the Baja California Norte adjacent waters Tue night before dissipating on Wed. Looking ahead farther south, a trough trailing from the low pressure will stall from the ITCZ and 18N, between 130W and 140W. Global guidance is suggesting fresh to strong winds may develop west of the trough into mid week as high pressure builds over the subtropics in the wake of the low pressure. $$ Ramos