000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1411 UTC Fri Jan 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will maintain strong to minimal gale force N winds across the Tehuantepec region through Sun. Seas in excess of 8 ft continue to reach several hundred miles downstream of the Gulf, mixing with longer period NW swell. Looking ahead, a cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and induce a stronger and much broader gale wind event across Tehuantepec Sun night through Tue. N winds will peak between 35 and 40 kt, and seas between 16 and 17 ft. Winds will greatest during the overnight and early morning hours, when nocturnal drainage flow augments the winds. Papagayo region Gale Warning: A broad persistent ridge across the Caribbean and Central America is supporting strong to near gale force NE to E winds across and downstream of the Papagayo region, extending downstream to 240 nm. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force tonight and Sat night. Seas will peak between 10 and 12 ft during the period of peak winds. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on these two Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 10N75W to 04N82W to 06N89W. The ITCZ continues from 06N89W to 05N96W to beyond 07N140W. No significant convection is observed. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen along and up to 30 nm of the ITCZ between 126W and 135W as well as along and up to 120 nm of the ITCZ W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the latest gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure located near 28N120W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The high will support fresh NW winds along the W side of the Baja Peninsula, and fresh to strong NW winds over the central Gulf of California through Sat night. Winds will diminish Sun and Mon, although winds may increase to 20-25 kt farther south off Cabo Corrientes. Looking ahead, a new cold front will approach Baja California Norte and Guadalupe Island Tue and Tue night, accompanied by NW swell of 8-10 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see above for more on the latest gale force gap wind event in the Papagayo region. The pressure gradient responsible for the gap winds in southern Mexico and Central America is also supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the waters of northern Nicaragua and offshore of the Gulf of Fonseca, as well as fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama. Winds across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to near 04N will increase each night this week, with downstream seas building to 6-7 ft by sunrise. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Scatterometer data shows a large area of fresh to strong trade winds W of 115W between 10N and 18N. Earlier altimeter passes showed seas of 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell and NE to E wind waves. Winds will diminish today as high pressure weakens ahead of a cold front entering the area N of 28N. The high pressure building behind the front will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds south of 20N west of 120W through Sat. Seas in this area will remain between 8 and 10 ft. Farther east, 8-9 ft seas persist between 06N-12N between 95W and 120W, due to swell originating from ongoing gap winds farther east in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and off the Nicaraguan coast. The synoptic pattern will change significantly early Sun, as a deep layer trough north of Hawaii shifts eastward. An associated surface low will drift eastward along roughly 25N, reaching 135W by late Sat into early Sun. Strong to near gale force SW winds, with seas to at least 12 ft may accompany this low within 360 nm radius on its southeast semicircle as it moves to the northeast. The low and associated weather is expected to move north of 30N by late Mon, leaving a trailing trough toward roughly 10N140W. $$ CAM