000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161624 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1329 UTC Thu Jan 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental of Mexico continues to drive strong to minimal gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region. Winds are greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Associated seas will build 11 to 12 ft during the periods of gales. Seas in excess of 8 ft continue to reach several hundred miles downstream, mixing with longer period NW swell. A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and induce a strong and much broader gale event across Tehuantepec late Mon through Tue. Currently, the forecast calls for northerly winds of 35 to 40 kt and seas of 16 or 17 ft with the next gap wind event. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A broad and persistent ridge across the Caribbean and Central America is supporting strong to near gale force NE to E winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region and extending westward to near 92W. Winds will briefly pulse to minimal gale force late Fri night into Sat morning. This general pattern will persist through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to 10 to 11 ft each night during the period of peak winds. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on these two Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 05N77W to 07N86W to 05N98W. The ITCZ continues from 06N98W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. No significant convection. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the latest gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a ridge extending from a 1018 mb high pressure located near 27N123W dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California. This is producing mainly moderate to fresh winds. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds across the waters between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro with seas to 8 ft today and tonight as the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over central Mexico strengthens some. The high pressure W of Baja California will shift S through Fri, ahead of a weakening cold front approaching Guadalupe Island. High pressure over the Great Basin will bring an increase in winds across the Gulf California Fri night into Sat, particularly across the central Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see above for more on the latest gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Papagayo. The pressure gradient responsible for the gale force gap wind events in Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions is also supporting strong NE to E winds across the waters of northern Nicaragua and offshore of the Gulf of Fonseca, as well as fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to near 04N will increase to strong each night through the morning hours this week, with downstream seas building to 6 to near 8 ft each night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to strong NE winds roughly NW of a line from new to 16N120W to 13N124W. the aerial extent of the trades will spread westward on Fri covering mainly from 07N to 15N W of 115W. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft will persist in the trade wind region, including a component of persistent northerly swell. A cold front will clip the northern forecast waters late today and gradually dissipating on Fri. New NW to N swell with seas of 8 to 9 ft will arrive behind this front, spreading mainly southeastward through the end of the week before decaying. Looking ahead, a cold front supported by a deep layer trough west of 140W will approach 30N140W by early Sat. Global models are suggesting the developing of surface low pressure along this boundary by late Sat, although there is still some uncertainty regarding the position and intensity. Guidance also suggest fresh to strong winds and building seas between this low and high pressure farther E. $$ GR