000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140945 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jan 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Orientales continues to support minimal gale force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, extending southward to about 14N. Associated peak seas downstream of the Gulf are near 12 ft. These winds will diminish slightly to around 30 kt by late Tue morning. Strong to near gale force winds will then persist across the Tehuantepec region through the remainder of the week, and are expected to increase again to minimal gale force Tue night and again Thu night. Strong northerly gap winds associated with this ongoing event will cover a modest area downwind of Tehuantepec, generally to near 12N or 13N. Maximum seas of 11 or 12 ft are expected during the period of maximum winds each night through early morning. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Strong to gale force tradewinds persisting across the western Caribbean continue to blow across Central America, and then offshore across the Papagayo region. Winds to minimal gale force are occurring tonight downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo and Lake Nicaragua, and will continue through the late morning hours Tue before diminishing slightly. Strong offshore gap winds are then expected to continue across the Papagayo region at 20 to near 30 kt and peak just below gale force each night throughout the week. Seas will build to 8 to 11 ft each late night following the pulse of peak winds. This strong offshore wind pattern will continue to affect the offshore waters from the Nicoya Peninsula to the Gulf of Fonseca through most of this week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on these two Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 10N74.5W to 04.5N78W to 07N87W to 04N97W. The ITCZ continues from 04N97W to 06.5N118W to 08N136W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of ITCZ between 107W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 08.5N W of 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the latest gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California Peninsula during the next several days. Under this weather pattern, expect moderate to fresh northerly winds W of Baja California through early Thu. NW swell currently propagating through the waters off Baja California is producing seas of 6 to 9 ft, with seas 10-11 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe. Seas are forecast to gradually subside through early Wed when additional pulses of long period NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia producing seas of 8 to 9 ft. High pressure will build SE across the northern forecast waters on Thu to produce an increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur and over the southern Gulf of California late Thu into Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see above for more on the gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Papagayo region. The pressure gradient responsible for the gale force gap wind events in Tehuantepec and Papagayo is also supporting fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf and downstream to near 04N will increase to strong each night through the morning hours this week, with downstream seas building to 6-7 ft each night. Elsewhere, swell generated in the gap wind areas from Tehuantepec and Papagayo will propagate into the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters over the next several days to maintain offshore seas of 6-9 ft, occasionally building to 10 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong surface ridge extends across the northern forecast waters from 1039 mb high pressure located N of the Hawaiian Islands near 40N150W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ to the south of the ridge is producing a large area of fresh to strong trade winds that roughly covers the waters N of the ITCZ from 06N to 26N W of 120W. the most recent altimeter data indicates seas of 9 to 13 ft across this area of strong winds. The ridge will weaken through Wed, which will loosen the pressure gradient and decrease associated winds and seas across this area. Long-period NW swell is spreading across the northern forecast waters. This swell will propagate SE and produce seas of 8 ft or greater across most of the forecast waters N of the Equator and W of 110W by Tue evening. $$ Stripling