000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140313 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 UTC Tue Jan 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental continues to support minimal gale force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, with associated peak seas downstream near 12 ft. These winds will diminish slightly to around 30 kt by Mon afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds will then persist across the Tehuantepec region through the remainder of the week, and are expected to increase again to minimal gale force Tue night. Strong northerly gap winds associated with this ongoing event will cover a modest area downwind of Tehuantepec, generally to near 12N or 13N. Seas of 11 or 12 ft are expected during the period of maximum winds each night through early morning. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force daytime winds will continue to blow across the Papagayo region as a strong wind flow in the SW Caribbean funnels through the gap. Winds will increase to minimal gale force during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft each late night following the pulse of peak winds. This pattern will continue through at least Wed and also support strong offshore gap winds across the waters of northern Nicaragua and downwind of Lake Managua, as well as the Gulf of Fonseca. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on these two Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 05N77W to 03N80W to 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 05N91W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the latest gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California Peninsula during the next several days. Under this weather pattern, expect moderate to fresh northerly winds W of Baja California through the forecast period. NW swell currently propagating through the waters off Baja California is producing seas of 8 to 9 ft, particularly W of 112W. Seas are forecast to gradually subside through early Wed when additional pulses of long period NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas of 8 to 9 ft. High pressure will build SE across the northern forecast waters on Thu to produce an increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur and over the southern Gulf of California late Thu into Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see above for more on the gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Papagayo region. The pressure gradient responsible for the gale force gap wind events in Tehuantepec and Papagayo is also supporting fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. The strongest winds will occur mainly at night through the morning hours, with downstream seas building to 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, swell generated in the gap wind areas from Tehuantepec and Papagayo will propagate into the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters over the next several days to build seas to 7-10 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends across the northern forecast waters from a 1041 mb high pressure located N of the Hawaiian Islands near 42N152W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ to the south of the ridge is producing a large area of fresh to strong trade winds that roughly covers the waters N of the ITCZ from 07N to 28N W of 126W. the most recent altimeter data indicate seas in the 9 to 13 ft across this area of strong winds. The ridge will weaken, which will loosen the pressure gradient and decrease associated winds and seas across this area through Wed. Long-period NW swell are spreading across the northern forecast waters. This swell event will propagate SE and produce seas of 8 ft or greater across most of the forecast waters N of the Equator and W of 110W by Tue evening. $$ GR