000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101440 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 UTC Fri Jan 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front over the Sierra Madre Oriental. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the equatorial trough over the eastern north Pacific will support gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat evening through Sun morning. Winds will diminish below gale force as the area of high pressure shifts eastward, and the pressure gradient loosens. Associated seas are forecast to peak near 13 or 14 ft by early Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this gale warning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 08N77W to 04N86W. The ITCZ continues from 04N86W to 03N95W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm N of the ITCZ between 112W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 20N between 117W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the upcoming gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A surface ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California will support moderate to fresh winds W of Baja California through the forecast period. Seas in the 6-8 ft range will prevail today. A new set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte Sun. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 14 ft W of Baja California Norte late Sun through Mon. The swell will spread southward, with seas greater than 8 ft prevailing W of the entire Baja California peninsula by Tue. The pressure gradient will also support fresh to strong winds across the southern Gulf of California through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tight N to S pressure gradient between high pressure of 1042 mb across the western Atlantic and the equatorial trough is supporting strong to near gale force NE to E winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. A tight pressure gradient will continue across Central America through Tue, which will continue to support fresh to strong daytime winds pulsing to near gale force each night. Seas will build to 8-10 ft each late night following the pulse of peak winds. Northerly swell will be generated from the upcoming gale force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. The swell will move SE into the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from high pressure of 1035 mb located NW of the forecast region near 37N149W across the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing a large area of fresh to strong trade winds that covers the waters N of the ITCZ to 25N W of 120W. Seas are in the 9 to 13 ft range within this area of winds. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through the upcoming weekend as the strong high pressure prevails. A set of long-period NW swell will reach the NW waters late Sat, spreading SE across the forecast area through early next week. Seas are forecast to peak near 14 ft roughly N of 28N between 120W and 131W Sun night. $$ AL