818 AXPZ20 KNHC 100857 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gale force northerly wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Sat evening through Sun morning as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Then, strong to near gale force northerly winds will persist through Tue night. Seas are forecast to build to 13 or 14 ft with this event by early Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this gale warning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 08.5N75W to 04.5N87W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N87W to 03.5N107W to 07.5N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm N of ITCZ between 112W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N to 20N between 132W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a ridge across the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California and a meandering trough over the Gulf of California is producing fresh to strong NW winds N of Punta Eugenia tonight and will spread south between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia on Fri. By Fri night, the fresh to strong winds will spread southward beyond the entrance of the Gulf of California covering mainly the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos. Seas area forecast to build to 8 to 9 ft outside the Gulf of California. This pressure gradient is also producing fresh NWly winds across the offshore waters of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia tonight, and is expected to shift southward to southern portions of the Baja waters Fri. Associated NW swell moving into the waters north of Punta Eugenia will cause seas to build to 8-10 ft overnight. This swell event will propagate southward reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Fri night. Another round of long- period NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sun. Moderate NW to W winds prevail across the Cabo Corrientes region, with peak winds surrounding the cape. Farther east, recent scatterometer data showed a small area of 20-25 kt N winds spilling out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the north of 15N. Winds may increase slightly overnight before diminishing on Friday then becoming light and variable through Saturday afternoon. See the Special Features section above for more details on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A strong N to S pressure gradient across Central America will continue to support strong to near gale force NE to E winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue, with seas building to 8-10 ft each late night following the pulse of peak winds. Seas generated by the gap wind events in Tehuantepec and Papagayo will continue to impact the waters off Guatemala and El Salvador through Fri. New northerly swell from the Tehuantepec region will move SE into the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on Sun. Strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama and downwind to near 5N, including the adjacent waters to Azuero Peninsula, through Fri morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure of 1035 mb located NW of the forecast region near 37N146W maintains a surface ridge extending southeastward across the northern forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing a large area of fresh to strong NE winds that covers mainly the waters from 08N to 27N W of 130W, and from 08N to 22N between 120W and 130W. Seas are in the 9 to 13 ft range within this area of winds. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through the upcoming weekend as the strong high pressure generally remains in place and strengthens. New and larger long-period NW swell will reach the NW waters late Sat, spreading SE across the forecast area through early next week. Seas are forecast to build to 12 to 14 ft roughly N of 28N between 120W and 131W. $$ Stripling