000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100323 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 UTC Fri Jan 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gale force wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Sat evening through Sun morning as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Then, strong to near gale force northerly winds will persist through Tue night. Seas are forecast to build to 13 or 14 ft with this event by early Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this gale warning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N75W to 05N87W. The ITCZ continues from 05N87W to 05N110W to 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. A trough is within the ITCZ along 135W from 08N to 13N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 129W and 135W, and within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 124W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for more details on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient between a ridge across the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California and a meandering trough over the Gulf of California will bring fresh to strong NW winds N of Punta Eugenia tonight and between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia on Fri. This will also produce fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of California tonight and Fri. By Fri night, the fresh to strong winds will spread southward beyond the entrance of the Gulf of California covering mainly the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos. Seas area forecast to build to 8 to 9 ft outside the Gulf of California. NW swell moving into the waters north of Punta Eugenia will build seas to 10 or 11 ft tonight. This swell event will propagate southward reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Fri night. Another set of long-period NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A strong N to S pressure gradient across Central America will continue to support strong to near gale force NE to E winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Seas generated by the gap wind events in Tehuantepec and Papagayo will continue to impact the waters off Guatemala and El Salvador through Fri. Another set of northerly swell from the Tehuantepec region will move SE into the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on Sun. Strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama and downwind to near 5N, including the adjacent waters to Azuero Peninsula, through Fri morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure of 1034 mb located NW of the forecast region near 36N145W maintains a surface ridge extending southeastward across the northern forecast waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing a large area of fresh to strong NE winds that covers mainly the waters from 09N to 27N W of 130W, and from 09N to 23N between 122W and 130W. Seas are in the 9 to 13 ft range within this area of winds. These marine conditions are forecast to persist over the next 48 hours as the high pressure continues to strenghten. A new and larger set of long-period NW swell will reach the NW waters late Sat, spreading SE across the forecast area through early next week. Seas are forecast to build to 12 to 14 ft roughly N of 28N between 120W and 131W. $$ GR