000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2003 UTC Thu Jan 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 03N85W. The ITCZ continues from 03N85W to 05N110W to 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. A trough is within the ITCZ along 134W from 08N to 13N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 130W and 135W, and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 124W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a ridge across the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California and a meandering trough over the Gulf of California will bring fresh to strong NW winds N of Punta Eugenia tonight and between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia on Fri. This will also produce fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of California tonight and Fri. By Fri night, the fresh to strong winds will spread southward beyond the entrance of the Gulf of California covering mainly the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos. Seas area forecast to build to 8 to 9 ft outside the Gulf of California. NW swell moving into the waters north of Punta Eugenia will build seas to 10 or 11 ft tonight. This swell event will propagate southward reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Fri night. Another set of long-period NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds have diminished below gale force across and downwind of the Gulf of Tehunatepec as winds veering to the SE across the western Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, the next gale force wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Sat evening through Sun morning as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Then, strong to near gale force northerly winds will persist through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A strong N to S pressure gradient across Central America will continue to support strong to near gale force NE to E winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat with seas of 8-10 ft. Seas generated by the gap wind events in Tehuantepec and Papagayo will continue to impact the waters off Guatemala and El Salvador through Fri. Another set of northerly swell from the Tehuantepec region will move SE into the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on Sun. Strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama and downwind to near 5N including the adjacent waters to Azuero Peninsula through Fri morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure of 1036 mb located NW of the forecast region near 37N146W maintains a surface ridge extending southeastward across the northern forecast waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing a large area of fresh to strong NE winds that covers mainly the waters from 08N to 23N W of 127W based on the most recent scatterometer data. Seas are in the 9 to 12 ft range within this area of winds. These marine conditions are forecast to persist over the next 48 hours as the high pressure continues to strenghten. By Sat, strong to near gale force winds will dominate the waters from 08N to 29N W of 130W, and from 08N to 22N between 120W and 130W with seas building to 13 or 14 ft. A new and larger set of long-period NW swell will reach the NW waters late Sat, spreading SE across the forecast area through early next week. Seas are forecast to build to 12 to 14 ft roughly N of 28N between 120W and 131W. $$ GR