000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jan 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds prevail this morning with peak winds reaching 35 kt. The peak wave height has decreased to 14 ft near the Gulf, however seas 12 ft or greater extend downstream to near 97W. With return flow establishing in the Gulf of Mexico, winds are expected to diminish below gale force by this afternoon. Looking ahead, the next gale force wind event is forecast to begin Sat evening and continue through Sun as a strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A strong N to S pressure gradient persists across Central America, supporting minimal gale force NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas have built to 12-13 ft with the peak winds, however seas in the range of 8 to 11 ft extend downstream to near 92W. Gale force winds will persist through the afternoon, diminishing to strong to near gale force by this evening. Those conditions will then persist through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on both gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06N77W to 1011 mb low pressure near 05N79W to 03N88W. The ITCZ continues from 03N88W to 05N110W to 08N128W, then resumes near 07N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 11N between 112W and 123W, and from 06N to 13N W of 123W. Additional scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 30N W of 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for more details on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient off Baja California will tighten later today through Fri night between an offshore high pressure ridge and weak low pressure that will track SE near the coast of California, then devolve into a surface trough. This will produce fresh to strong NW winds offshore of Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California during this time period. Strong winds will spread southward across the central and southern Gulf tonight through early Sat. NW swell moving into the waters north of Punta Eugenia will build seas to 11 ft north of 29N today into tonight, with seas subsiding below 8 ft by Fri night. Another set of long-period NW swell will move through the Baja California waters Sun through the middle of next week when it will start to subside. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the Special Features section above for more details on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate northerly swell generated by gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to impact the waters off Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. Another set of northerly swell from the Tehuantepec region will move SE into the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat night through Sun night. Fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Fri evening. Elsewhere, expect winds less than 20 kt and seas less than 8 ft for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1035 mb high pressure center NW of the area near 36N145W maintains a surface ridge extending southeastward across the northern forecast waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Meanwhile, a surface trough is analyzed from 13N127W to 07N129W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough. See the ITCZ/monsoon trough section for further details. The enhanced pressure gradient between these features is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trades across the waters roughly N of 07N and west of 125W. As the surface trough moves westward through Fri, expect near gale force winds in the vicinity of the trough with seas building to 12-14 ft. An expansive area of fresh to strong trades with seas 8 ft or greater will persist W of 120W through the weekend, diminishing some by early next week. A set of long-period NW swell moving SE across the waters E of 125W will continue through tonight. Looking ahead, a larger set of northerly swell will move into the northern waters on Sun and spread southward through early next week. $$ Ramos