000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082126 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2125 UTC Wed Jan 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Scatterometer data from just before 1500 UTC today confirmed 35-40 kt gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Earlier altimeter data showed seas greater than 12 ft well downstream of the Gulf, with peak seas in the 16-17 ft range. High pressure across eastern Mexico will maintain a strong pressure gradient over southern Mexico through tonight. Expect gale conditions to persist into early Thu morning, then diminish to strong speeds Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, the next gale force wind event is forecast to begin Sat evening and continue through Sun as a strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A strong north-south pressure gradient persists across Central America today with near gale force NE winds likely occurring over and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. These gap winds are briefly expected to pulse to minimal gale force overnight as they are enhanced by nocturnal drainage flow. Then, strong to near gale force winds will prevail Thu through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to 12 ft late tonight in response to the gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 04N77W to 01N82W to 03N88W. The ITCZ continues from 03N88W to 07N123W, then resumes from 07N127W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 120W and 123W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 127W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for more details on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a developing low over the south central U.S. will result in a strengthening offshore pressure gradient late this week. Expect fresh to strong NW winds offshore of Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California Thu evening into early Fri, spreading southward across the Gulf Fri through Sat. NW swell will move into the waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight, with seas building to 11 ft north of 30N Thu into Thu night. Seas will subside below 8 ft late Fri and Fri night. Another set of long-period NW swell will impact the Baja California waters Sun through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the Special Features section above for more details on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate NW swell generated by gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact waters off Guatemala and El Salvador through Thu night. Fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Fri. Elsewhere, expect winds less than 20 kt and seas less than 8 ft for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1035 mb high pressure center NW of the area near 35N149W maintains a surface ridge extending southeastward across the northern forecast waters. Meanwhile, a 1008 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 08N125W. The enhanced pressure gradient between these features is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trades across the waters north of 07N and west of 130W per recent scatterometer data. The area of strong trades will expand eastward beyond 125W through Fri as the low pressure center moves westward. Expect near gale force winds north of the low with seas building to 12-15 ft by Fri. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trades will persist west of 125W through the weekend. Long-period NW swell will begin impacting the waters north of 29N and east of 125W tonight. A larger set of northerly swell will move into the northern waters on Sun and spread southward through early next week. $$ Reinhart