000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2039 UTC Sun Jan 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure remains centered over NE Mexico and the NW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The associated pressure gradient has continued to weaken gradually today, and storm force winds have decreased to gale force, around 40 to 45 kt. Peak seas are likely around 17 ft downstream of the Gulf near 13N96W. Through Mon, the high pressure will move east and continue to gradually weaken. This will allow winds to fall below gale force by midday Monday. However, a reinforcing area of high pressure will build south toward the region Mon night, and winds will again likely build to gale force by late Mon night. Northerly winds may near storm force Tue eve and night. Gale force winds may persist through Wed night. A wide swath of 12 ft or greater seas will prevail over and downwind of the area through Mon afternoon. Seas will then diminish but remain above 8 ft, until 12 ft seas return by midday Tue. This second round of higher seas may persist through Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure 1011 mb near 05N76W to 07N92W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N92W to 04N110W to 06N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 99W and 105W and from 05N to 09N W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more details about the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds will increase to strong late tonight and persist through late Mon night as strong high pressure builds into the Great Basin. Seas should reach around 8 ft Mon and Mon night. NW swell is approaching offshore Baja California Norte this afternoon, and will propagate SE, then subside late Mon night, with peak seas reaching around 10 ft. A second pulse of northerly swell will arrive early Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Large fresh northerly swell generated by strong gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec described above will continue to bring seas of 12 ft to waters offshore Guatemala through late tonight. Seas of 8 ft or higher will prevail offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon. Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE to E winds will prevail through the week. Winds may reach near gale early Wed. Seas of 8 to 9 feet are expected through this evening, with more seas of similar levels possible late Tue night through Thu. Gulf of Panama: Pulses of fresh northerly winds are expected to dominate the Gulf and waters N of 05N through into late week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue over the offshore waters of and S of Costa Rica through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong 1038 mb high pressure is just NW of the area near 35N139W with a ridge reaching SE of the high all the way to near Cabo Corrientes. A tight pressure gradient south of the ridge exists, producing fresh to strong tradewinds mainly N of 08N and W of 120W. Seas of 8 to 13 ft are occurring in association with this winds combined with northerly swell W of 125W. The high and ridging will weaken through the early part of the week, allowing for trades to diminish which will assist in subsiding seas. That will be short lived as the pressure gradient re-tightens by mid- week as a N to S trough propagates westward in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Developing gale force winds N of the area near Point Conception, California will generate fresh northerly swell which will push S into the area across our waters N of 25N and E of 125W tonight through Mon evening, causing seas to reach 12-15 ft. These conditions will improve early Tue. $$ KONARIK