000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2041 UTC Sat Jan 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A cold front has cross nearly all of Mexico and is entering Guatemala this afternoon. Powerful high pressure centered over Zacatecas is ushering in strong gale force winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this afternoon, which will increase to storm force this afternoon through late tonight. Gale force winds will then prevail through midday Monday. After a brief lull late Mon, gale force winds are expected to return by Tue morning, with near storm force winds possible later Tue. Seas this afternoon of up to 16 ft will increase further tonight, reaching as high as 24 feet by Sun morning. A wide swath of 12 ft or greater seas will prevail into Mon across and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as northerly swell is induced. Seas of 8 ft or greater will finally diminish Mon night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure near the Panama/Colombia border near 09N78W to 1014 mb low pressure near 09N94W to 08N107W. The ITCZ continues from 08N107W to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 94W and 99W and from 06N to 15N between 108W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the developing Storm Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gulf of California: Midday scatterometer pass revealed moderate to fresh NW to N winds over central and southern Gulf, with seas of 4 to 6 feet likely in this region. Winds and seas will decrease some tonight and Sun, before increasing again to similar levels Sun night. Strong winds are forecast Mon and Mon night, before diminishing to fresh Tue. Seas are likely to approach 8 ft Mon and Tue in association with these winds. Long period NW swell continues to propagate SE across the regional offshore waters, with seas running 6-9 ft across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas will slowly subside through Sun. Associated large breaking waves may produce dangerous surf conditions along exposed coastlines this morning. New NW swell will arrive offshore of Baja California Norte Sun, subsiding early Tue, with yet another pulse of swell arriving Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh gap winds today will increase to strong tonight as a cold front enters northern parts of Central America. Strong NE to E winds will likely prevail much of next week, with near gale force winds possible Wed. Strong high pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean Sun through Wed to produce significant gap winds across the entire region, with fresh to possible strong NE winds pulsing offshore along all of the coastlines from Papagayo to SE Guatemala. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the middle of next week, except for moderate to occasionally fresh N flow across the Gulf of Panama. Large fresh NW swell generated by the storm force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec mentioned above will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight through early Mon. Seas up to 12 ft are forecast. Long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters through Sun. This very long period, high energy NW swell is reaching the Galapagos Islands and will arrive on the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia later today, producing large and dangerous surf conditions. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is located this afternoon from 30N130W to 25N140W. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds continue to occur behind this front as evidenced my midday scatterometer passes, and fresh winds are occurring ahead of it southward to the ITCZ. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will also prevail. This cold front will stall and gradually dissipate across the NW waters through Sun night. High pressure building behind the front and into the NW portions of the discussion area will continue to generate fresh to strong NE winds across the N and W-central waters through early next week, with seas building to 8 to 13 ft. $$ KONARIK