000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040317 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 054 UTC Sat Jan 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will cross the SW Gulf of Mexico tonight. Gale force winds early Sat will rapidly increase to minimal Storm force Sat afternoon into early Sun before diminishing back to gale Sun morning. Winds should decrease to below gale force by Mon afternoon, but may quickly return to storm force Tue afternoon. Seas will peak higher than 20 ft during this event and produce a wide swath of seas 8 ft and greater in wind driven N swell. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to low pres 1012 MB near 10N93W to 07N106W to 08N116W. The ITCZ continues from 08N116W to 06N133W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 120 NM either side of a line from 11N109W to 06N121W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either side of a line from 04N128W to 07N140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Mainly moderate NW to N wind flow prevails, along with seas of 3 ft or less, except 3-5 ft seas across the mouth of the Gulf. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh by early Sat as the pressure gradient tightens, and become locally strong in the central and southern waters. These winds will cause seas to build to between 5 and 6 ft in the central and southern waters. Winds will increase to fresh to strong across the entire basin by early next week with corresponding seas expected to build to between 6 and 9 ft. Large long period NW swell continues to propagate SE across the regional waters, with seas running 7 to 10 ft across the waters of Baja California Norte, and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere over the offshore Mexico waters. Seas in this area will slowly subside through Sun. Associated large breaking waves may produce dangerous surf conditions along exposed coastlines through early Sat. Looking ahead, a new round NW swell will arrive offshore of Baja California Norte Sun, subsiding by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong gap winds will resume across the Gulf of Papagayo region Sat night. These winds are forecast to persist through early next week, potentially reaching near gale force by Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Mon, except for moderate to occasionally fresh N flow across the Gulf of Panama. Long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters through Sat night. This very long period NW swell is reaching the Galapagos Islands and will arrive on the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Columbia late Sat through Sun, producing large and dangerous surf conditions. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1025 mb high pressure center is centered near 30N130W, with a ridge axis extending E into the northern waters. The associated pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 08N to 20N and W of 115W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell prevail across this region. Gentle to moderate winds and gradually subsiding seas will continue elsewhere through Sat night. A cold front cuts across the NW corner of the discussion area from 30N136W to 27N140W. Fresh to strong NE winds will develop behind the front by Sat morning. The front will stall and gradually dissipate across the NW waters by Sun night. High pressure building in the wake of the front will generate fresh to strong NE winds across the northern waters by the end of the weekend, and seas building to between 8 and 13 ft. Winds and seas E of 130W will gradually diminish and subside by mid week. $$ CAM