000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2054 UTC Fri Jan 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will cross the SW Gulf of Mexico tonight. This will generate gale force winds late tonight into early Sat over and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to strong gale force late Sat morning, then reach minimal Storm force Sat afternoon into early Sun before diminishing back to gale Sun morning. Winds should decrease to below gale force by Mon afternoon, but may increase back to gale force Tue afternoon. Seas will peak higher than 20 ft during this event and produce a wide swath of seas 8 ft and greater in wind driven N swell. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1010 mb near 09N75W to low pres 1009 MB near 05N79W to low pres 1012 MB near 10N93W to 06N103W to 08N112W. The ITCZ continues from 08N112W to low pres 1014 MB near 07N124W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 120 NM either side of a line from 08N112W to 04.5N130W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Mainly moderate NW to N wind flow prevails, along with seas of 3 ft or less, except 3-5 ft seas across the mouth of the Gulf. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh by early Sat as the pressure gradient tightens, and locally strong in the central and southern waters. These winds will build seas to 5-6 ft in the central and southern waters. Winds will increase to fresh to strong across the entire basin by early next week with seas expected to build to 6-9 ft. A weakening trough along the coast of Guerrero stretching SW into the tropics supported an area of moderate convection from near 17N101W to 10N110W earlier this afternoon. This activity has diminished. Winds across all of the Mexican offshore waters NW of this feature have diminished overnight. However large NW swell continues to propagate SE across the regional waters, with seas running 8-12 ft across the waters of Baja California Norte, and 7-10 ft elsewhere over the offshore Mexico waters behind it. Seas here will slowly subside through early Sat. Associated large breaking waves may produce dangerous surf conditions along exposed coastlines through early Sat. Looking ahead, new NW swell will arrive offshore of Baja California Norte Sun, subsiding by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds gap winds will resume across the Gulf of Papagayo region Sat night. These winds are forecast to persist through early next week, potentially reaching near gale force by the end of the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through early next week, except for moderate to occasionally fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Panama. Long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters through Sat night. This very long period NW swell is expected to reach the Galapagos Islands this evening and then the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Columbia late Sat through Sun, producing large and dangerous surf conditions. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure center is centered near 28N131W, with a ridge axis extending SE into the northern waters. The associated pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds N of 08N and W of 115W. Seas of 8-12 ft in NW swell prevail across this region. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere today. These seas will gradually subside there by this weekend. A cold front is currently entering the discussion area near 30N140W. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind it, and seas of 8-10 ft. The front will stall and gradually dissipate across the NW waters early this weekend. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with fresh to strong NE winds across the northern waters by the end of the weekend, and seas building to 8-13 ft. The winds and seas will gradually diminish and subside by mid week. $$ CAM