000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1521 UTC Fri Jan 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will cross the SW Gulf of Mexico later today. This will induce gale force winds late tonight into early Sat across and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to strong gale force late Sat morning, then reaching minimal Storm force Sat afternoon into early Sun before diminishing back to gale Sun morning. Winds should decrease to below gale force by Mon afternoon, but may increase back to gale force Tue afternoon. Seas will build in excess of 20 ft during this event and produce a wide swath of seas 8 ft and greater in wind driven northerly swell. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75.5W to low pres 1009 mb near 05N78W to low pres 1010 mb near 09.5N93W to 06N101W to low pres 1011 mb near 08.5N116W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues on from 07N120W to 06.5N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection within 90 nm either side of trough between 86W and 92W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection from 04.5N to 10N between 107.5W and 122w, and from 03N to 07.5N between 122W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Mainly moderate NW to N wind flow prevails, along with seas of 3 ft or less, except 3-5 ft seas across the mouth of the Gulf. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh by early Sat as the pressure gradient tightens, and locally strong in the central and southern waters. These winds will build seas to 5-6 ft in the central and southern waters. Winds will increase to fresh to strong across the entire basin by early next week with seas expected to build to 6-9 ft. A weakening trough along the coast of Guerrero stretching SW into the tropics continues to support an area of moderate convection from near 17N101W to 10N110W. This activity may shift inland across portions of Guerrero and Oaxaca this afternoon to produce locally heavy rainfall and possibly lead to localized flooding. Winds across all of the Mexican offshore waters NW of this feature have diminished overnight. However large NW swell continues to propagate SE across the regional waters, with seas running 8-12 ft across the waters of Baja California Norte, and 7-10 ft elsewhere over the offshore Mexico waters behind it. Seas here will slowly subside through early Sat. Associated large breaking waves may produce dangerous surf conditions along exposed coastlines through early Sat. Looking ahead, new NW swell will arrive offshore of Baja California Norte Sun, subsiding by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds gap winds will resume across the Gulf of Papagayo region Sat night. These winds are forecast to persist through early next week, potentially reaching near gale force by the end of the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through early next week, except for moderate to occasionally fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Panama. Long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters through Sat night. This very long period NW swell is expected to reach the Galapagos Islands this evening and then the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Columbia late Sat through Sun, producing large and dangerous surf conditions. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1023 mb high pressure center remains just N of the forecast area, with a ridge axis extending SE into the northern waters. The associated pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds N of 08N and W of 115W. Seas of 8-12 ft in NW swell prevail across this region. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere today. These seas will gradually subside there by this weekend. A cold front currently NW of the area will move SE and cross 30N140W later today, with fresh to strong northerly winds behind it, and seas of 8-10 ft. The front will stall and gradually dissipate across the NW waters early this weekend. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with fresh to strong NE winds across the northern waters by the end of the weekend, and seas building to 8-13 ft. The winds and seas will gradually diminish and subside by mid-week. $$ Stripling