000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030949 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will cross the SW Gulf of Mexico later today. This will induce gale force winds late tonight into early Sat into and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to strong gale force late Sat morning, then reaching minimal Storm force Sat afternoon into early Sun before diminishing back to gale Sun morning. Winds should decrease to below gale force by Mon afternoon, but may increase back to gale force Tue afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 1010 mb low pressure near 05N78W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N92W to 05N100W to 08N115W to 07N125W to 06N132W. The ITCZ axis then extends from 06N132W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the E quadrant of the low near 09N92W, within 180 nm S of the axis between 109W and 128W, from 08N to 10N between 108W and 117W, from 04N to 06N between 128W and 132W, and also from 06N to 08N between 131W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Mainly moderate NW flow prevails, along with seas of 3 ft or less. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh by early Sat as the pressure gradient tightens, locally strong in the central and southern waters. These winds will build seas to 4-6 ft in the central and southern waters. Winds will increase to fresh to strong across the entire basin by early next week with seas potentially building to 6-9 ft. A weakening trough along the coast of Michoacan stretching SW into the tropics continues to a band of moderate to isolated strong convection from near 17N102W to 12N107W. This activity may produce locally heavy rainfall at least through the remaining overnight hours across coastal sections of Michoacan and Guerrero, possibly leading to localized flooding. Winds have diminished behind this feature however a large set of NW swell continues to propagate SE, with seas running 8-14 ft across the waters of Baja California Norte, and 8-10 ft elsewhere over the offshore Mexico waters behind it. Seas will slowly subside through early Sat. Large and breaking waves may produce dangerous surf conditions along exposed coastlines through early Sat. Looking ahead, another set of NW swell will arrive offshore of Baja California Norte Sun, subsiding by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds gap winds will resume across the Gulf of Papagayo region Sat night. These winds are forecast to persist through early next week, potentially reaching near gale by the end of the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through early next week, except for moderate to occasionally fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Panama. Long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters through Sat night. This very long period NW swell is expected to reach the Galapagos Islands this evening and then the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Columbia late Sat through Sun, producing large and dangerous surf conditions. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains centered N of the forecast area, with a ridge axis extending SE into the northern waters, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds N of 08N and W of 115W. Seas of 8-12 ft prevail across this region. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere today. These seas will gradually subside there by this weekend. A cold front currently NW of the area will breach 30N140W later today, with fresh to strong northerly winds behind it, and seas of 8-10 ft. The front will stall and gradually dissipate across the NW waters early this weekend. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with fresh to strong NE winds across the northern waters by the end of the weekend, and seas building to 8-13 ft. The winds and seas will gradually diminish and subside by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky