000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030214 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 UTC Fri Jan 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec GALE WARNING...A strong cold front will cross the SW Gulf of Mexico early Fri. This will induce strong gale force winds by late Fri night funneling into and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. After sunrise Sat, winds are forecast to reach 40 to 45 kt, with a potential for near storm force winds Sat and Sat night. Winds should begin to decrease to below gales on Mon, but may increase again Tue. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends low pressure 1009 mb near 06N78W to low pressure 1010 mb near 08N93W to another low pressure 1012 mb near 08N114W. The ITCZ axis then extends from 08N115W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 10N between 90W and 96W and from 06N to 09N between 112W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening trough along the coast of Michoacan stretching southwest into the tropics continues to a band of moderate to isolated strong convection from near 18N101W to 13N106W. This activity will produce locally heavy rainfall at least through this evening across coastal sections of Michoacan and Guerrero, possibly leading to localized flooding. Fresh NW winds prevail across the offshore waters behind these features, where seas are running 6-9 ft to the south of Punta Eugenia, and 8-12 ft across the waters of Baja California Norte. Large, long period NW swell continues to propagate SE in the offshore Mexico waters. Seas of 9 to 12 ft across northern portions will slowly subside through Fri. Large breaking waves will produce dangerous surf conditions along exposed coastlines through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters Fri through Sat night, with fresh to strong winds gap winds resuming across the Gulf of Papagayo region Sat night. This very long period NW swell is expected to reach the Galapagos Islands Friday evening and then the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Columbia late Sat through Sun, producing large and dangerous surf conditions. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Sun, except for moderate to occasionally fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains centered north of the forecast area, with a ridge axis extending SE into the northern waters, supporting fresh to strong trade winds N of 08N and W of 115W. Seas to 12 feet prevail across this region. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere today. Large, long period NW swell will sweep SE during the next few days, resulting in seas greater than 12 ft north of 10N and west of 130W through tonight. Wave heights will gradually subside there by this weekend. $$ KONARIK