000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022058 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2034 UTC Thu Jan 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec GALE WARNING...A strong cold front will cross the SW Gulf of Mexico late tonight and Fri. This will induce strong gale force winds over and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Sat morning, reaching 40-45 kt by midday, and potential approaching storm force later Sat and Sat night. Winds should begin to decrease to below gales on Mon. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to low pressure 1009 mb near 05N79W to low pressure 1010 mb near 07N94W to low pressure 1012 mb near 08N112W to 07N119W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N119W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from 07N to 12N between 93W and 99W and within 90 nm either side of the axis between 110W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Low pressure along the Sinaloa coast has moved inland and weakend further. A trough associated with this low stretches SW from near Manzanillo into the tropics, coupled with scattered moderate to strong convection. This convection is producing heavy rainfall and posing a risk of localized flooding over Michoacan and Guerrero through this evening. Fresh NW winds prevail across the offshore waters behind these features, where seas are running 6-9 ft to the south of Punta Eugenia, and 8-12 ft across the waters of Baja California Norte. Large, long period NW swell continues to propagate SE in the offshore Mexico waters. Seas of 9 to 12 ft across northern portions will slowly subside through Fri. Large breaking waves will produce dangerous surf conditions along exposed coastlines through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters Fri through Sat night, with fresh to strong winds gap winds resuming across the Gulf of Papagayo region Sat night. This very long period NW swell is expected to reach the Galapagos Islands Friday evening and then the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Columbia late Sat through Sun, producing large and dangerous surf conditions. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Sun, except for moderate to occasionally fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains centered north of the forecast area, with a ridge axis extending SE into the northern waters, supporting fresh to strong trade winds N of 08N and W of 115W. Seas to 12 feet prevail across this region. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere today. Large, long period NW swell will sweep SE during the next few days, resulting in seas greater than 12 ft north of 10N and west of 130W through tonight. Wave heights will gradually subside there by this weekend. $$ KONARIK