000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021614 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1542 UTC Thu Jan 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec GALE WARNING...A strong cold front entering the SW Gulf of Mexico tonight and Fri will induce gale force winds over and downstream of Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, beginning shortly before sunrise on Sat and quickly increasing to 40-45 kt Sat morning. Computer model guidance indicates that storm force conditions are possible Sat through Sat night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 05N78.5W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 06.5N93.5W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 08N112W TO 06.5N122W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06.5N122W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 77W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W, WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 126W, AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weakening low pressure moving slowly eastward across the southern Gulf of California the past 24 hours was located along the coast of mainly Mexico in extreme southern Sinaloa. Scattered moderate convection associated with this low has moved inland across higher terrain and weakened since sunrise. The associated has moved through Las Tres Marias and is approaching Bahia Banderas and extends SW into the tropics. Fresh NW winds prevail across the offshore waters behind these features, where seas are running 6-9 ft to the south of Punta Eugenia, and 8-12 ft across the waters of Baja California Norte. Ahead of the dissipating frontal zone, widespread tropical moisture is streaming northeastward across the coastal states from Jalisco to western Guerrero. Satellite imagery shows a band of moderate to strong thunderstorms shifting eastward along the coast of Michoacan and extending inland, and is expected to shift eastward towards Acapulco and interior portions of Guerrero today and gradually weaken. However, some of this activity will produce heavy rainfall and the chance for localized flooding today. Large, long period NW swell continues to propagate SE in the offshore Mexico waters. Seas of 9 to 12 ft across northern portions will slowly subside through Fri. Large breaking waves will produce dangerous surf conditions along exposed coastlines through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters Fri through Sat night, with fresh to strong winds gap winds resuming across the Gulf of Papagayo region Sat night. This very long period NW swell is expected to reach the Galapagos Islands Friday evening and then the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Columbia late Sat through Sun, producing large and dangerous surf conditions. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Sun, except for moderate to occasionally fresh northerly flow across the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains centered north of the forecast area, with a ridge axis extending SE into the northern waters, supporting fresh to strong trade winds N of 08N and W of 115W. Seas to 12 feet prevail across this region. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere today. Large, long period NW swell will sweep SE during the next few days, resulting in seas greater than 12 ft north of 10N and west of 130W through tonight. Wave heights will gradually subside there by this weekend. $$ Stripling