000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 05N80W to 09N86W to 
05N100W to 09N112W to 07N124W. The ITCZ continues from 07N124W 
to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
07N to 08N between 116W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weakening low pressure over the southern Gulf of California will 
move inland and dissipate today. A dissipating cold front south 
of Cabo Corrientes to 15N108W will continue to move SE today.
Fresh N winds immediately NW of the front will diminish today as 
the front dissipates. Widespread tropical moisture streaming 
across central Mexico will produce scattered heavy showers and 
increase the risk of localized flooding today.

Large, long period NW swell continues to propagate SE in the 
offshore Mexico waters. Seas of 9 to 12 ft will slowly subside 
through Fri, and dangerous surf conditions are expected along 
exposed coastlines. A strong cold front moving into the SW Gulf 
of Mexico tonight and Fri will induce gale force winds over and 
downstream of Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Model guidance 
indicates storm force conditions are possible on Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters Fri 
through Sat night, with fresh to strong winds gap winds resuming 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle 
to moderate S to SW flow will continue in the offshore waters of 
Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure remains centered north of the forecast area, with 
a ridge axis extending SE into the northern waters, supporting 
fresh to strong trade winds N of 09N and W of 115W. Seas to 12 
feet prevail across this region. Gentle to moderate winds will 
persist elsewhere today. Large, long period NW swell will sweep 
SE the next few days, resulting in seas greater than 12 ft north 
of 10N and west of 130W through tonight. Wave heights will 
gradually subside there by this weekend.

$$
Mundell