000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010905
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N81W to 08N92W to 
07N106W to 09N112W to 07N124W. The ITCZ continues from 07N124W 
to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
06N to 09N between 83W and 95W, and from 05N to 10N between 109W 
and 116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An occluded 1012 mb low pressure is drifting SE by Punta Eugenia 
near 27N115W. It will weaken today and move into the Gulf of 
California. An associated cold front across Baja California Sur 
will continue to move southeast through Thu. Fresh winds behind 
the front will slowly decrease through Thu. Northerly winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will decrease through tonight.

Large, long period NW swell is propagating SE into the offshore 
Baja California Norte waters, and will affect the waters along 
the Pacific coast of Mexico through the remainder of the week, 
producing dangerous surf conditions. A strong cold front moving 
into the SW Gulf of Mexico Thu and Fri will induce gale force 
winds over and downstream of Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Papagayo region through tonight, then diminish on Thu. 
Long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters Fri 
through Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to 
SW flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, 
Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1033 mb is centered near 34N137W, with a 
ridge axis extending into the northern waters supporting fresh 
to locally strong trade winds N of 10N and W of 120W. Seas up to 
12 ft continue across this region. Fresh to locally strong N to 
NE winds prevail north and west of a cold front that extends SW 
from the southern Baja peninsula, with seas to 15 ft. Gentle to 
moderate winds will persist elsewhere across the region through 
Wed. Large, very long period NW swell over NW waters will sweep 
SE the next few days, resulting in seas greater than 12 ft north 
of 10N and west of 130W persisting into Thu night. Wave heights 
will gradually subside by this weekend.

$$
Mundell