000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010216 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 UTC Wed Jan 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N90W to 05N103W to 10N118W to 08N131W. The ITCZ continues from 08N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N E of 95W, from 04N to 08N between 103W and 112W, and from 09N to 12N between 116W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An occluded 1013 mb low pressure is drifting SE near Punta Eugenia this evening near 28N115W. This motion will continue into Wed night as it slowly weakens and enters the southern Gulf of California. An associated cold front is arching across Baja California Sur and will continue to move southeast into Thu. Fresh to strong winds behind this front will slowly decrease through late week. Northerly gap winds in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will near gale force tonight, then decrease to strong and finally fresh into Wed night. Large, very long period NW will is beginning to propagate SE into the waters offshore Baja California Norte this evening, and will move into and affect most waters along the Pacific coast of Mexico through the remainder of the week, producing dangerous surf conditions. A strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico Thu and Fri. Gale force winds will likely develop over and downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Minimal storm force winds are also possible. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds will continue pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo into Thu. Very long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters Fri night through Sat night. Strong Papagayo gap wind is likely Sat night as high pressure builds into the western Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered near 34N139W, with axis extending SE into the northern waters. This ridge is supporting strong to fresh trades N of 09N and W of 120W, as evidenced by midday scatterometer passes. Seas of up to 12 ft continue in the same region. Low pressure offshore the Baja peninsula is pushing a cold across the northern waters. Strong winds prevail north and west of this front, with seas peaking around 16 ft near 29N126W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds persist across most of the region. Fresh to strong trades will prevail through Wed. A set of large, very long period NW swell now over the NW waters will propagate SE through the week. This will result in seas greater than 12 ft north of 10N and west of 130W persisting into late Thu. Wave heights will gradually subside late week through the weekend. $$ KONARIK