000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312105 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2043 UTC Tue Dec 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N90W to 05N103W to 10N118W to 08N131W. The ITCZ continues from 08N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N E of 100W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An occluded 1012 mb low pressure just offshore Punta Eugenia this afternoon near 28N116W will continue to slowly weaken and move E and SE into Wed. The associated cold front extends through the Baja California Sur waters. Fresh to strong winds behind this front will slowly decrease as the low and front weaken. Elsewhere, fresh northerly winds are noted over the far northern Gulf of California. Midday scatterometer also depicts strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec area as enhanced north-south pressure gradient persists across southern Mexico. A set of large, very long period NW swell will propagate SE across the region Wed through Fri, producing dangerous surf conditions along the Pacific coast of Mexico. Strong northerly winds will persist over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight, then diminish Wed. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico late this week. There is good model support for gale force winds over and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning late Fri night through the weekend, with strong gales or even minimal storm force winds possible. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo region into Thu. Very long period NW swell will move SE across the offshore waters Fri night through Sat night. Strong Papagayo gap wind is likely Sat night as high pressure builds into the western Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered near 34N139W, with axis extending SE into the northern waters. This ridge is supporting strong to fresh trades N of 09N and W of 120W, as evidenced by midday scatterometer passes. Seas of up to 12 ft continue in the same region. Low pressure offshore the Baja peninsula is pushing a cold across the northern waters. Strong winds prevail poleward of the fronts, with seas peaking around 16 ft near 29N126W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds persist across most of the region. Fresh to strong trades will prevail through Wed. A set of large, very long period NW swell will enter the NW portion today and propagate SE through the week. This will result in seas greater than 12 ft north of 10N and west of 130W persisting through Wed night. Wave heights will gradually subside by late week through the weekend. $$ KONARIK