000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310905
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Dec 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N80W to 08N88W to 
10N121W to 08N134W. The ITCZ continues from 08N134W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
04N to 09N east of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
09N to 16N between 124W and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Low pressure 1010 mb is located west of northern Baja California 
near 29N119W. The low and a trailing cold front will move mainly 
southeast across the Baja peninsula through Wed night. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Large long 
period NW swell associated with the front will create dangerous 
surf conditions along exposed beaches and reefs of the coast of 
Mexico Wed through Fri. Strong northerly winds are expected in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this afternoon. A strong gap 
wind event is likely in Tehuantepec Fri night, with gale force 
conditions possible on Sat, with model guidance showing winds to 
40-45 kt. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE to E winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo region 
through Thu. A stronger gap wind event is likely on Sat night as 
high pressure shifts from the Gulf of Mexico into the western 
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate S to SW flow is expected across 
the waters adjacent to Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador 
through Sat.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong ridge is anchored by a 1034 mb high near 35N138W, and 
supporting a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds 
from 09N to 23N W of 120W. Corresponding seas in this region are 
8 to 11 ft in primarily NW swell. Fresh to strong trades will 
remain in place through Wed. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds 
will prevail elsewhere. Large long period NW swell associated 
with a cold front moving to the Baja California peninsula will 
spread across most of the forecast area west of 110W through 
Thu, supporting seas 8 to 14 ft, which will gradually subside by 
the weekend.

$$
Mundell