000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310302 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Dec 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N102W to 09N120W to 08N134W. The ITCZ continues from 08N134W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 04N to 10N E of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 20N W of 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle variable winds are across the Baja California Sur offshore waters just ahead of a 1010 mb low and associated with a cold front that extends from 30N117W to 26N119W to 23N131W. Moderate winds are ahead of the front N of Punta Eugenia. The front will continue to push SE, reach Cabo San Lazaro Tue evening, and Cabo San Lucas Wed morning before dissipating near the Revillagigedo Islands late Wed. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front along with long period NW swell with combined seas in the 8-13 ft range. The leading edge of the 8 ft seas will reach the Revillagigedo Islands by Wed night. Dangerous surf is expected along the coast of Baja Wed through Fri as large NW swell with periods of 20 to 25 seconds arrive in the region. A second round of fresh to strong NW winds is forecast for the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Thu morning as the pressure gradient tightens between a developing trough over northern Baja California and a strong ridge to the west of Baja. These winds will diminish late on Thu, however long period NW swell with seas to 12 ft will prevail through Fri. Northerly flow in the wake of a cold front that is crossing the Gulf of Mexico will support strong to near gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Tue night. A stronger gap wind event is likely by Fri night with possible gale force conditions beginning Sat morning. Otherwise, light to gentle breezes prevail across the remainder waters off southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo region, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night. A stronger gap wind event is likely on Sat night as strong high pressure starts to shift from the Gulf of Mexico to the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate SW flow is expected across the waters adjacent to Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high near 37N137W is supporting a broad area of fresh to locally strong NE winds from 09N to 23N W of 120W. Corresponding seas in this region range between 8 and 11 ft in mixed NW swell and NE swell. Otherwise, gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail elsewhere. The area of fresh to strong trade winds will remain in place through Wed as the strong ridge continues to reside over the forecast waters N of 20N. A cold front extends from 30N117W to 23N124W to 23N132W with fresh to near gale force northerlies behind it. A low associated with the front will head SE along the Baja Peninsula through Tue night. The front will gradually weaken and dissipate afterwards near the Revillagigedo Islands late on Wed. Sea heights of 8 to 16 ft are expected over the northern waters behind the front, starting to subside late on Tue. Otherwise, large long period NW swell will propagate SE across the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend, supporting seas 8 and 12 ft generally W of 115W through Thu. $$ Ramos