000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302201
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Dec 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to a 1010 mb low pres 
near 08N85W to 05N100W to 09N113W. The ITCZ continues from 
09N114W to 09N124W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection and isolated tstms are from 03N to 10N E of 91W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 18N W of 117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle NW winds are across the Baja California offshore 
waters just ahead of a cold front associated with a complex low 
pressure system that will move S into the Baja California Norte 
waters this evening. The front will continue to push SE towards 
Baja California Sur waters on Tue while weakening. Fresh to 
strong winds are expected behind the front along with long 
period NW swell with combined seas in the 8-13 ft range. The 
leading edge of the 8 ft seas will reach the Revillagigedo 
Islands by Wed night. Dangerous surf is expected along the coast 
of Baja Wed through Fri as large NW swell with periods of 20 to 
25 seconds arrive in the region. A second round of fresh to 
strong NW winds is forecast for the waters N of Punta Eugenia by 
Thu morning as the pressure gradient tightens between a 
developing trough over northern Baja California and a strong 
ridge to the west of Baja. These winds will diminish late on 
Thu, however long period NW to 12 ft will prevail through Fri.

Northerly flow in the wake of a cold front that is crossing the 
Gulf of Mexico will support strong to near gale force gap winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Tue night. A stronger 
gap wind event is likely by Fri night with possible gale force 
conditions beginning Sat morning. Otherwise, light to gentle 
breezes prevail across the remainder waters off southern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region through Thu and resume again during the upcoming 
weekend. Gentle to moderate SW flow is expected across the 
waters adjacent to Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador 
through the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high near 37N137W is 
supporting a broad area of fresh to locally strong NE winds from 
09N to 25N W of 120W. Corresponding seas in this region range 
between 8 and 11 ft in mixed NW swell and NE swell. Otherwise, 
gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail elsewhere. 

The area of fresh to strong trade winds will remain in place 
through Wed as the strong ridge continues to reside over the 
forecast waters N of 20N. A cold front extends from 30N118W to 
26N124W to 26N131W with fresh to strong northerlies behind it. A 
low associated with the front will head SE along the Baja 
Peninsula through Tue night. The front will gradually weaken and 
dissipate afterwards near the Revillagigedo Islands. Sea heights 
of 8 to 16 ft are initially expected over the northern waters 
behind the front. Otherwise, large long period NW swell will 
propagate SE across the forecast waters through the upcoming 
weekend, supporting seas 8 and 12 ft generally W of 115W through 
Thu.

$$
Ramos