000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301524 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1519 UTC Mon Dec 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 09N86W to 06N100W to 08N115W. The ITCZ continues from 08N115W to 09N120W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N W of 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient S of low pressure to the W of southern California is supporting light to gentle NW winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters. A tighter pressure gradient between a strong ridge W of Baja and a trough over interior Mexico is inducing gentle to moderate NE winds over the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Fresh NW winds are occurring across the central and southern Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh winds offshore Sinaloa and Jalisco. Otherwise, light to gentle breezes prevail across the waters off southern Mexico. A cold front associated with a complex low pressure system will move S into the Baja California Norte waters today, then weaken over the Baja California Sur waters Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected behind the front along with long period NW swell. Combined seas in the range of 8 to 13 ft will be associated with this front. The leading edge of the 8 ft seas the Revillagigedo Islands by Thu. Dangerous surf is expected along the coast of Baja Wed and Thu as large NW swell with periods of 20 to 25 seconds arrive in area waters. Northerly flow in the wake of a cold front that is crossing the Gulf of Mexico will support strong to near gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue and Tue night. A strong gale force gap wind could be on tap for the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu. Gentle to moderate SW flow is expected across the waters adjacent to Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high near 36N139W is supporting a broad area of fresh to locally strong NE winds from 10N to 25N W of 113W. Corresponding seas in this region range between 8 and 11 ft in mixed NW swell and NE swell. Otherwise, gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail elsewhere. The area of fresh to strong trade winds will remain in place through Wed as the strong ridge continues to reside over the forecast waters N of 20N. The low associated with the cold front will head SE along the Baja Peninsula through Tue night when the low and associated front are forecast to dissipate near Baja California Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands. Sea heights of 8 to 16 ft are initially expected over the northern waters behind the front. Large long period NW swell will propagate SE across the forecast waters through the end of the week, supporting seas 8 and 12 ft generally W of 110W. $$ KONARIK