000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300905
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 UTC Mon Dec 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 09N86W to 06N100W to 
08N115W. The ITCZ continues from 08N115W to 09N120W to beyond 
06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 08N E of 88W, and from 07N to 12N W of 119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient S of developing low pressure to the W of
southern California supports light to gentle NW winds across the
Baja California Norte offshores. A tighter pressure gradient 
between a strong ridge W of Baja and a trough over interior Mexico
supports gentle to moderate NE winds over the Baja California 
Sur offshore waters. A stronger gradient of pressure also 
supports fresh NW winds over the central and southern Gulf of 
California, and moderate to fresh N winds over the Sinaloa and 
Jalisco offshores. Otherwise, light to gentle breezes prevail 
across the waters off southern Mexico. 

A cold front associated with a complex low pressure system will 
move S into the Baja California Norte waters today, then weaken 
over the Baja California Sur waters Tue. Fresh to locally strong 
winds are expected behind the front along with long period NW 
swell. Combined seas in the range of 8 to 13 ft will be
associated with this front. The leading edge of the 8 ft seas 
the Revillagigedo Islands by Thu. Dangerous surf is expected 
along the coast of Baja Wed and Thu as large NW swell with
periods of 20 to 25 seconds arrive in area waters. 

Northerly flow in the wake of a cold front that is crossing the 
Gulf of Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Strong to locally near gale force winds are 
expected from early Tue through Tue evening as a high pressure 
ridge builds S along the Sierra Madre Oriental. A strong gale 
force gap wind event could be on tap for the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
beginning on Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region through Thu. Gentle to moderate SW flow is 
expected across the waters adjacent to Costa Rica, Panama, 
Colombia, and Ecuador through the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high near 36N139W supports 
a broad area of fresh to locally strong NE winds from 10N to 25N 
W of 113W. Corresponding seas in this region range between 8 and 
11 ft in mixed NW swell and NE swell. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate N to NE winds prevail elsewhere. 

The area of fresh to strong trade winds will remain in place 
through Wed as the strong ridge continues to reside over the 
forecast waters N of 20N. The low associated with the cold front 
will head SE along the Baja Peninsula through Tue night when the 
low and associated front are forecast to dissipate near Baja 
California Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands. Sea heights of 8 to
16 ft are initially expected over the northern waters behind the
front. Large long period NW swell will propagate SE across the 
forecast waters through the end of the week, supporting seas 8 
and 12 ft generally W of 110W.

$$
CAM