000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291607
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1559 UTC Sun Dec 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1007 mb near 09N73W to 
07N92W to low pres 1010 mb near 106W to 09N118W to 09N127W. The 
ITCZ continues from 09N127W to 07N135W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from
05N to 10N between 80W and 87W, from 05N to 09N between 102W and
107W, and from 07N to 11N between 130W and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW to N flow prevails off the coast of Baja 
California. Moderate winds dominate the offshores of Baja 
California Sur with locally fresh winds extending to the 
offshores Jalisco. Long period NW swell associated with the 
former front will continue to propagate SE across the region 
today, before subsiding tonight. Fresh NW winds are expected
today across the central and southern Gulf of California today,
possibly increasing to strong this evening. High pressure N of 
the area will move ENE by Monday, allowing winds to decrease to 
gentle to moderate speeds. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes 
prevail across the waters off southern Mexico.

A cold front associated with a complex low pressure system will 
move S into the Baja California Norte waters Mon, then weaken 
over the Baja California Sur waters Tue. Large long period NW 
swell generated by this system will impact the Baja offshore 
waters Mon through Wed. High pressure building over the Gulf of 
Mexico will support strong N gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Mon night through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE to E winds pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo region 
will prevail into mid week. Gentle to moderate SW flow is 
expected across the waters adjacent to Panama, Colombia, and 
Ecuador.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pres measuring 1027 mb is centered near 31N133W. The high
supports a broad area of fresh to locally strong NE winds from 
10N to 25N W of 115W. Seas in the 8-9 ft range continue over this
region in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, generally
gentle to moderate winds prevail across the area. 

Large NW swell will gradually subside through Mon and allow seas
E of 120W to subside below 8 ft by Mon night. The area of fresh 
to strong trade winds will expand west of 125W through Mon as 
high pressure builds north of the area. A strong cold front will 
be ushered S into the northern waters by low pres heading SE 
along the baja Peninsula Mon and Tue. Large long period NW swell 
will propagate SE across the forecast waters through the middle 
of next week, with seas building to between 12 and 16 ft N of 
25N.

$$
KONARIK