000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 UTC Sun Dec 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1007 mb near 09N73W to 07N92W to low pres 1010 mb near 106W to 09N118W to 09N127W. The ITCZ continues from 09N127W to 07N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 09N between 84W and 87W, from 05N to 08N between 92W and 94W and from 06N to 08N W of 136W. An upper-level trough extending from 12N122W to 19N116W is supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 60 nm either side of a line from 15N106W to 12N112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW to N flow prevails off the coast of Baja California in the wake of a former cold front that dissipated near Cabo San Lucas on Sat morning. Moderate winds dominate the offshores of Baja California Sur with locally fresh winds extending to the offshores Jalisco. Long period NW swell associated with the former front will continue to propagate SE across the region through Sun, then subside Sun night. Moderate NW winds are expected over the central and southern Gulf of California tonight, increasing to fresh by Sun morning, and to fresh to strong during the evening hours. High pressure N of the area will move ENE by Monday, thus allowing the winds to decrease to gentle to moderate speeds. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail across the waters off southern Mexico. A cold front associated with a complex low pressure system will move S into the Baja California Norte waters Mon, then weaken over the Baja California Sur waters Tue. Large long period NW swell generated by this system will impact the Baja offshore waters Mon through Wed. High pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico will support strong N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo region will taper to fresh by Tue. Gentle to moderate SW flow is expected across the waters adjacent to Panama, Colombia and Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pres measuring 1027 mb is centered near 31N133W. The high supports a broad area of fresh to locally strong NE winds from 10N to 25N W of 115W. Seas in the 8-9 ft range continue over this region in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Pacific high seas. Large NW swell associated with a former cold front that dissipated on Saturday will gradually subside through Mon and allow seas E of 120W to subside below 8 ft by Mon night. The area of fresh to strong trade winds will expand west of 125W through Mon as high pressure builds north of the area. A strong cold front will be ushered S into the northern waters by low pres heading SE along the baja Peninsula Mon and Tue. Large long period NW swell will propagate SE across the forecast waters through the middle of next week, with seas building to between 12 and 16 ft N of 25N. $$ CAM