000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281521 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Sat Dec 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 06N90W to 10N116W to 08N122W. The ITCZ continues from 08N122W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 79W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 97W and 105W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate NW to N flow off the coast of Baja California behind a weakening cold front analyzed over the far southern Gulf of California and the Baja California Sur offshore waters this morning. Gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished below the fresh speeds that were noted overnight. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail across the waters off southern Mexico. The weakening cold front between Los Cabos and the Revillagigedo Islands will dissipate later today. Associated NW swell will continue propagating SE across the region through tonight, then subside Sun into Mon. Another cold front will move southward into the Baja California Norte waters Mon, then weaken over the Baja California Sur waters on Tue. Large long period NW swell will impact the Baja offshore waters Mon through Wed. High pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico early next week will support strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Tue through Wed. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of California Sun and Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent GOES-16 satellite imagery and lightning data indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms persist south of the monsoon trough offshore of Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are likely ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate SW flow across the southern waters. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will persist over the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Overnight scatterometer data showed a broad area of fresh to locally strong NE winds between a low pressure trough along 117W and high pressure centered near 33N131W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 110W and 117W. Available altimeter data north of 15N between 125W and 130W indicated seas were 8-11 ft in this region, likely in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Pacific high seas. A weakening cold front extending from near the southern tip of Baja California to 18N120W to 19N130W to 21N137W will dissipate later today. Associated NW swell will gradually subside through Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds will develop west of 125W Sun through Mon as high pressure builds north of the area. A stronger cold front will move southward into the northern waters Mon and Tue. Large long period NW swell will propagate SE across the forecast waters through the middle of next week, with seas building to 12-16 ft across the NW portion. $$ Reinhart