000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1520 UTC Fri Dec 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through southern sections of Costa Rica
near 09N84W, and it continues to 06N95W 08N106W and 08N112W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N112W to 09N121W BEYOND 07N140W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 03N to 06N from
82W eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to
06N between 82W and 88W, and within 90 nm on either side of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ from 107W westward.

A surface trough is along 15N117W 12N119W 10N119W. Precipitation:
from 120 nm to 300 nm E of the trough from 11N to 15N scattered
moderate to strong. The GFS model for 250 mb, and water vapor
satellite imagery indicate a trough that extends from 32N117W to
13N126W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern
Pacific Ocean from 10N northward from 130W eastward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SE Arizona across NW Mexico, to the
coast of Baja California near 26N113W, to 22N120W 22N130W, and to
25N136W. The front will extend from 25N109W TO 20N120W, tomorrow
morning on Saturday. The front will dissipate during the day on 
Saturday. Strong to near gale-force W to NW winds are evident 
from scatterometer data to the NW of the front. Those winds that 
are associated with the front will diminish today. Large NW swell
will continue to propagate southeastward in the offshore waters 
of central and southern Mexico through Sunday, with sea heights 
slowly subsiding. 

Fresh NW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California 
later today, as some reinforcing cold air moves across the 
northern part of the peninsula. Expect moderate to fresh NW to N
winds off the west coast of Baja California through the weekend.
Another cold front will push southward from California on Monday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to occasionally strong winds are possible across the Gulf 
of Papagayo for the first 24 hours of the forecast period. A
brief shot of fresh to occasionally strong winds will return on
Saturday night/early on Sunday morning. Expect another round of
the fresh to occasionally strong winds from Tuesday into
Wednesday. Gentle to moderate monsoon winds will persist 
elsewhere across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, 
Colombia, and Ecuador. Light to gentle northerly winds will 
prevail across the Gulf of Panama this weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure NW of the cold front moving into Baja California 
will strengthen a surface ridge that dominates the waters north 
of 20N west of 125W. The pressure gradient between the building 
ridge and lower pressures associated with the ITCZ will support 
moderate to fresh trade winds through Sunday. Large NW swell 
will subside gradually across the region west of 115W through 
Sunday. A cold front will move southward from the California 
waters on Monday. High pressure building behind this front will 
strengthen the trade winds in the western waters early next 
week.

$$
MT