000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1436 UTC Thu Dec 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N96W to 08N104W to 07N110W. The ITCZ continues from 07N110W beyond 07N140W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60 NM on either side of the monsoon trough between 102W and 105W, and within 60 NM N of the monsoon trough between 106W and 109W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 75 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 82W and 87W, and within 100 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 123W westward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 30N118W to 27N130W, beyond 30N140W. The front will reach from 29N112W to 24N114W to 23N126W on Friday morning. The overnight ASCAT pass was showing fresh to strong winds on either side of the cold front. The front will be impacting the waters off Baja California, as the front moves across the forecast waters, from today into Friday. Large and long-period NW swell also will follow the front. The overnight altimeter pass was indicating that the sea heights are reaching near 19 feet N of the area. The large NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California today. The sea heights will peak near 18 feet today, before beginning to subside. Strong SW winds are possible in the northern Gulf of California, today, in advance of the cold front. The front will continue toward the south and southeast, eventually stalling and dissipating from Los Cabos to the Revillagigedo Islands on Friday night/Saturday morning. The NW swell will continue to propagate southward while subsiding slowly. The sea heights of greater than 8 feet will spread as far to the south as Socorro Island by Saturday, before subsiding to less than 8 feet off Baja California by late Sunday. The next cold front will approach the waters off northern Baja California Norte early next week. More to the south: fresh to strong northerly winds are funneling off Cabo Corrientes, as the surface ridge that is to the north of the area has shifted southward. These winds will diminish on Friday, as the ridge weakens. Gap winds will pulse to 20 to 25 kt tonight, due to local drainage impacts. The strong winds may persist through much of Friday, possibly assisted by a low to mid level trough that is setting up in the Yucatan Peninsula. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W through the next several days. Gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoon flow will persist elsewhere, across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador. Light to gentle wind flow will dominate across the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A narrow ridge is along 27N138W 23N119W 20N110W. The surface pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds from the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. A cold front has moved into the forecast waters N of the ridge. The overnight ASCAT pass was indicating fresh to strong winds on either side of the front. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell into the area. The overnight ASCAT pass was indicating sea heights near 13 feet in the waters N of 29N between 125W and 130W. The ASCAT pass depicted seas reaching near 19 ft N of the area. These larger seas will propagate into the northern waters, impacting the waters north of 20N east of 130W today. The sea heights that are associated with swell will peak near 19 to 20 feet over the forecast waters N of 28N between 120W and 125W today. Seas of 8 ft or greater continue to dominate the remainder of the forecast waters N of 08N and W of 120W. The swell moving into the northern waters will reinforce the wave heights, maintaining the areal coverage of 8 ft seas today, and expanding them to cover the waters N of 10N and W of 110W by late Friday. Another cold front, that is in the north central Pacific Ocean, will move toward the waters north of 25N and west of 130W late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure building behind this front will help to bring an increase to the tradewinds from 15N to 25N west of 125W by Sunday. An upper level trough extends from a 33N120W cyclonic circulation center, curving to 26N116W 21N114W, to 13N120W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, to locally strong, within 60 nm on either side of the line from 14N120W 15N116W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60 nm on either side of the line from 19N113W to 22N109W to 24N107W. $$ MT