000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Thu Dec 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N87W to 07N100W. The ITCZ continues from 07N100W to 09N111W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 10N between 102W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 116W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is approaching the area from the NW, and will enter the forecast waters off Baja California Norte today. The front will reach from the northern Gulf of California through Punta Eugenia then farther southwest to beyond 25N120W by midday today. Overnight ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong winds on either side of the cold front, which will impact the waters off Baja California as the front moves into the forecast waters today into Friday. Large, long- period NW swell will also follow the front. Overnight altimeter pass indicates seas are reaching near 19 ft N of the area. The large NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California today. Seas will peak near 18 ft today before beginning to subside. Strong SW winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front today. The front will continue southward, eventually stalling and dissipating from off Los Cabos to the Revillagigedo Islands Fri night. The NW swell will continue to propagate southward while slowly subsiding. By Sat, seas greater than 8 ft will spread as far south as Socorro Island before subsiding below 8 ft off of Baja California by late Sun. The next cold front will approach the waters off northern Baja California Norte early next week. Farther south, fresh to strong northerly winds are funneling off Cabo Corrientes as the high pressure ridge north of the area has shifted southward. These winds will diminish Fri as the ridge weakens. Gap winds will pulse to 20 to 25 kt tonight due to local drainage impacts. The strong winds may then persist through much Fri, possibly assisted by a low to mid level trough setting up over the Yucatan. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W through the next several days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador, while light to gentle flow will dominate across the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A narrow ridge extends across the waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W. A cold front has moved into the forecast waters N of the ridge, with overnight ASCAT pass indicating fresh to strong winds on either side of the front. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell into the area, with overnight ASCAT pass indicating Seas near 13 ft over the waters N of 29N between 125W and 130W. The ASCAT pass depicted seas reaching near 19 ft N of the area. These larger seas will propagate into the northern waters impacting the waters north of 20N east of 130W today. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 19-20 ft over the forecast waters N of 28N between 120W and 125W today. Seas of 8 ft or greater continue to dominate the remainder of the forecast waters N of 08N and W of 120W. The swell moving into the northern waters will reinforce the wave heights, maintaining the areal coverage of 8 ft seas today, and expanding them to cover the waters N of 10N and W of 110W by late Fri. Another cold front over the north central Pacific will move toward the waters north of 25N and west of 130W late Sat into Sun. High pressure building behind this front will help to bring an increase to the tradewinds from 15N to 25N west of 125W by Sun. $$ AL