846 AXPZ20 KNHC 260253 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 253 UTC Thu Dec 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N100W. The ITCZ continues from 07N100W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 07N to 10N between 105W and 115W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 14N to 16N between 115W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging along 24N into Baja California Sur continues to shift south this evening, ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. The front will reach from the northern Gulf of California through Punta Eugenia then farther southwest to beyond 25N120W by midday Thu. Strong NW winds will follow the front over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Large, long- period NW swell will also follow the front with seas reaching as high as 17 ft near Guadalupe Island by late Thu. Strong SW winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front early Thu. Winds will diminish slightly behind the front as it continues southward Thu night into Fri, eventually stalling and dissipating from off Los Cabos to the Revillagigedo Islands Fri night. The NW swell will subside as well, although seas of 8 to 12 ft will persist off Baja California Sur to as far south as Socorro Island by Sat. Looking ahead, the seas almost completely subside below 8 ft off of Baja California by late Sun, just as another front approaches the waters off northern Baja California Norte. This pattern will be similar to the preceding front, with strong NW winds and large, long-period NW swell accompanying the front across the waters off Baja California Norte through early next week. Farther south, fresh to strong northerly winds are funneling off Cabo Corrientes as the high pressure ridge north of the area is displaced southward ahead of the front. These winds may increase slightly Thu as the gradient tightens, then diminish as the ridge weakens. Gap winds are fairly modest currently over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but are likely to pulse to 20 to 25 kt tonight and Thu night due to local drainage impacts. The Thu night winds may persist through much Fri, possibly assisted by a low to mid level trough setting up over Yucatan. Looking ahead, the next major round of gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec may be late Sun into early Mon, although confidence in this scenario is not as high as earlier. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W through the next several days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador, while light to gentle flow will dominate across the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A sharp ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure centered near 35N141W toward Baja California Sur. The ridge is weakening and shift southward ahead of a cold front moving southward into the discussion area. Per earlier scatterometer satellite data and recent buoy observations, generally moderate to fresh trade wind flow persists over the tropical waters south of 20N and west 130W, with another area of fresh trade winds from 12N to 18N between 115W and 120W. Recent altimeter satellite data showed seas of 8 to 12 ft from 10N to 20N west of 120W, in a mix of NW swell and shorter period NE seas driven by trade winds, with highest seas near 15N140W. NW swell of 10 to 18 ft will follow the front, impacting the waters north of 20N east of 130W through Thu, reinforcing 8 to 10 ft seas across the entire region north of 05N and west of 110W through Fri. The ridge building behind the front will likely be displaced too far north to activate trade wind flow much into Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front over the north central Pacific will move toward the waters north of 25N and west of 130W late Sat into Sun. High pressure building behind this front will help to bring an increase to the tradewinds from 15N to 25N west of 125W by Sun. $$ Christensen