000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1246 UTC Wed Dec 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 06N103W. The ITCZ continues from 06N103W to 09N110W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 04N to 09N between 78W and 85W and from 08N to 10N between 112W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...Winds will pulse each night through Fri to fresh to strong. Strong gap winds are possible late Sun into early Mon. Farther north, NW swell is producing seas to around 8 ft offshore Baja California this morning, but will diminish this afternoon. A cold front will shift into the waters off Baja California Norte Thu, with strengthening winds both ahead and behind the front Thu and Fri off the coast of Baja California Norte. The front will usher in a large set of NW swell, with seas reaching near 20 ft Thu. The swell will spread southward, bringing seas 8 ft or greater to the waters off all of the Baja California peninsula, reaching as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands by early Sat. Seas will slowly subside through the weekend. The cold front will shift across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by early Fri, strengthening winds to the far northern Gulf of California Fri. Looking ahead, winds may increase slightly by Sat across the Gulf of California and off Cabo Corrientes as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W through the next several days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador, while light to gentle flow will dominate across the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure centered near 33N147W toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue north of the ITCZ and W of 120W due to pressure gradient between the ITCZ's lower pressure and the aforementioned ridge. Seas in this area average 8 to 11 ft. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are also occurring N of 10N between 120W and 150W, where NW swell is propagating into the region. As the high pressure weakens today and tonight, the gradient will lessen and winds and seas will subside into Thu. A cold front will move into the northern waters late Thu, and spread across areas N of 20N and E of 125W Thu night. This front will bring strong winds N of 25N and E of 125W. The front will also usher in a set of large NW swell into the area, with seas peaking near 20 ft on Thu. Areal coverage of 8 ft seas across the forecast waters will decrease over the next 24 hours before the next set of NW swell moves into the area. This new set of NW swell will propagate SE across the forecast waters, bringing 8 ft or greater seas to the waters N of 10N and W of 110W by early Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front over the north central Pacific will move toward the waters north of 25N and west of 130W late Sat into Sun. High pressure building behind this front will help to bring an increase to the tradewinds from 15N to 25N west of 125W by Sun. $$ KONARIK