000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250400 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 015 UTC Wed Dec 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 09N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 07N between 100W and 104W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A lingering tight pressure gradient supported by high pressure centered north of the area over the western Gulf of Mexico continues to be responsible for strong to near gale force gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This pattern is relaxing as the high pressure weakens and shifts east, allowing winds to diminish through Wed. Overnight drainage flow will support pulses of strong gap winds will persist Wed night and Thu night. Looking ahead, the next round of near gale to gale force gap winds may be Sun night. Farther north, a weakening frontal boundary reaching from the central Gulf of California through southern Baja California Sur to Clarion Island will stall and weaken through tonight. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh W to NW winds behind the front over the offshore waters between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Earlier altimeter satellite data showed seas of 6 to 9 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro, primarily due to long-period NW swell entering the region. Scatterometer satellite data also showed fresh winds off Cabo Corrientes. These winds are likely starting to increase as high pressure builds off Baja California in the wake of the front, briefly increasing to 20 to 25 kt by late Thu. The high pressure will weaken through late Thu, as a second front moves into the region. The second front will move southeast and reach from the central Gulf of California through southern Baja California Sur by early Fri before starting to stall and weaken. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front. mainly impacting the waters off Baja California Norte Thu and Thu night. Fresh to strong SW are possible over the far northern Gulf of California Thu as well ahead of the front. Wind diminish across the area through late Fri, but a new round of long-period NW swell will follow the front as well, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by late Fri. Looking ahead, winds may increase slightly by Sat across the Gulf of California and off Cabo Corrientes as high pressure builds west in the wake of the front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas generated by gales in the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W through the next several days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador, while light to gentle flow will dominate across the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered near 33N147W toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier scatterometer showed fresh to strong trade winds south of the ridge and north of the ITCZ west of 125W. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed a large area of 8 to 12 ft seas, primarily in NW swell, but also with a component of shorter period NE trade wind flow into the deep tropics. A cold front will move southeastward through the waters north of 20N and east of 125W through late Thu. This will weaken the ridge, and allow the trade wind flow to diminish starting tonight, although also bringing fresh to strong NW winds to the waters north of 25N and east of 125W Thu and Thu night. The main impact will be a new round of large, long-period NW swell following the front. This will mainly impact the area north of 20N and east of 125W where seas could be in excess of 15 ft late Thu through Fri. Elsewhere reinforcing seas in excess of 8 ft will linger over most the of the area north of 10N west of 120W through Fri, before starting to subside below 8 ft from west to east Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front over the north central Pacific will move toward the waters north of 25N and west of 130W late Sat into Sun. High pressure building behind this front will allow NE to E winds to increase from 15N to 25N west of 125W by Sun. $$ Christensen