000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Sun Dec 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico and the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific continues to support gale force northerly gap winds across the Tehuantepec region, with seas up to 15 ft. The area of high pressure will build further today in the wake of another cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the area and increase winds to 40 to 45 kt over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by this evening, with seas building up to near 20 ft. High pressure will start to weaken and shift eastward early next week. This will loosen the pressure gradient, and veer winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico. The loosened gradient and veered winds will help diminish winds and bring this extended gale force gap wind event to an end early Tue. Swell generated from these ongoing gap winds continue to produce a large plume of 8 ft or greater seas that extends beyond 100W. Marine interests transiting across or in the vicinity the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the next several days should be aware of this strong gap wind event, and take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N86W to 06.5N105W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N105W to 09N115W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N E of 83W, and also from 06N to 10N between 92W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 116W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about the ongoing gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. NW swell prevails across the offshore waters W of Baja and N of Cabo San Lazaro, with seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. This swell will subside early next week. A larger set of NW swell will arrive towards the end of the upcoming week, with seas building to 8 to 14 ft by Thu night. Fresh to strong NW winds will develop offshore of Cabo Corrientes by mid- week due to a locally tight pressure gradient associated with a decaying frontal boundary dropping SE. These winds may briefly increase to gale force Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas generated by a gale force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early next week. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W through next week, pulsing to near gale force at night through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador, while light to gentle flow will dominate across the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends over the NW waters from 30N125W to 18.5N140W. Overnight scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong winds on either side of the front. The front has ushered in a new set of long period NW swell. Seas are currently peaking near 13 ft W of the front. The front is forecast to gradually dissipate while moving eastward into early next week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. This will tighten the pressure gradient, and increase trades across the west- central waters into early next week. Another cold front will drop down S of 32N by late Mon with a surge of fresh to strong NW winds behind it. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the remainder of the N waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 17N and W of 120W. Long period NW swell propagating across the area is mixing with shorter period wind waves, supporting seas in the 9 to 11 ft range over this area. The NW swell is also helping to maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the remaining waters N of 07N and W of 110W. $$ AL