000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141500 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1500 UTC Sat Dec 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N83W to 06N108W. The ITCZ continues from 06N108W to 12N121W. It resumes from 12N124W to 11N131W. It resumes from 11N135W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 04N to 07N between 95W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 12N to 16N between 118W and 122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 12N between 122W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N to 12N between 130W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, local drainage flow will support fresh to strong winds through late this morning before diminishing. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico Mon night. The front will shift southward across the western Gulf of Mexico, reaching the Bay of Campeche Tue. High pressure will build southward across the Sierra Madre Oriental in the wake of the front. The pressure gradient between this building high pressure, and the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific will usher in the next gale force gap wind event Tue night. This will be a strong gap wind event, with wind speeds possibly reaching minimal storm force, and seas building in excess of 20 ft on Wed. High pressure of 1033 mb centered near 36N146W will shift eastward over the next 24 hours. This will tighten the pressure gradient and strengthen winds over the waters off Baja California Norte tonight into Sun. The area of high pressure will weaken, and winds will diminish over this area early next week. Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the waters off Baja California. Seas of 10 to 12 ft will prevail over the waters off Baja California Norte. Seas in excess of 8 ft will continue across the waters N of the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas will start to subside early next week, and falling below 8 ft Tue. A fresh set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte Wed night. High pressure building over the Great Basin north of the area will support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California Mon night through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador, while light to gentle flow will dominate across the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from high pressure of 1033 mb centered near 36W146W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge, and two areas of low pressure,centered near 12N123W and 11N134W, continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the waters from 11N and 20N and west of 120W. The areas of low pressure, as well as the area of high pressure, will weaken over the next couple of days. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish the strong winds across the area. NW swell is propagating across the forecast waters, with seas in excess of 8 ft covering much of the waters west of 115W. Seas associated to the swell will gradually subside the next few days, falling below 8 ft over much of the forecast waters early next week. A fresh set of NW swell will move into the northwest waters Mon morning. This swell will bring seas to near 15 ft over the waters N of 25N and W of 125W by midweek. $$ AL