000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140933
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Dec 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0715 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N84W to 06N100W to 
06N108W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 
06N108W to 07N115W to 11N120W to 10N131W to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection from 08N to 16N between 118W and 127W, and 
from 04N to 13N W of 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a combination of weak high pressure 
over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, and local overnight drainage 
flow support fresh to strong winds through late this morning. 
Winds will diminish afterwards as the high pressure shifts to 
the NE. Looking ahead, the next major cold front will move 
through southern Mexico by Tue. Early indications from various 
model data show near storm strength gap winds by mid week, with 
strong gap winds and building seas reaching as far as 360 nm 
downstream into open waters by Wed morning.

Farther north, fresh winds prevail off the coast of Cabo 
Corrientes, between high pressure over the central plateau over 
central Mexico and lower pressure off the Pacific coast of 
southern Mexico. These winds should diminish later this morning 
as the high pressure weakens. Otherwise, gentle to moderate 
northerly flow is off the coast of Baja California, and across 
the Gulf of California. 

A cold front will move into the waters off northern Baja 
California Norte this afternoon/early evening. The front will 
weaken as it shifts across Baja California Norte and the 
northern Gulf of California through late today, just as a 
reinforcing front moves into the region. The second front will 
also weaken as it shifts into Baja California Sur and the 
central Gulf of California through Sun. High pressure building 
behind these fronts northwest of the region will support fresh 
to strong NW winds along the coast of Baja California Norte 
today into early Sun. Long period NW swell in excess of 8 ft 
will continue through the offshore waters of Baja California and 
reach the Revillagigedo Islands this afternoon before subsiding 
Tue morning. 

High pressure building over the Great Basin north of the area 
will support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of 
California Mon night through Tue night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo
through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south 
to southwest monsoon flow will persist across the offshore 
waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the 
end of the week, while light to gentle flow will dominate across 
the Gulf of Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between surface ridging N of 16N, and two 
areas of low pressure centered near 12N121W and 11N133W continue 
to support fresh to strong trade winds across the waters from 
12N and 26N and west of 120W. NW swell is propagating across the 
forecast waters, with seas in the 8 to 14 ft range north of 07N 
and west of 115W. The NW swell will continue across this region 
through Mon night. 

Looking ahead, a fresh new set of NW swell will move into the 
northwest waters by Mon morning, with seas building to as high 
as near 18 ft by midweek.

$$
Ramos