000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131004
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0845 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 6N92W to 
06N100W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 
06N100W to 09N110W to 09N120W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 107W and 127W, 
and from 04N to 09N W of 132W. Numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is from 06N to 09N between 124W and 128W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong gap winds are expected to 
diminish this afternoon as high pressure north of the area 
dissipates. Seas ranging from 8 to 9 ft extend up to 210 nm 
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

A ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high N of the area maintains 
gentle to moderate northerly flow off the coast of Baja 
California while moderate to fresh NW winds persist across the 
Gulf of California between the ridge and troughing over NW 
Mexico. Latest altimeter data show seas between 3 and 5 ft seas 
over the Baja California Sur offshore waters and over Oaxaca and 
Guerrero, Mexico adjacent waters.

Low pressure will develop over Mexico early on Sat and the 
pressure gradient in the region will increase, thus supporting 
moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte, increasing 
to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia Sat evening. Strong winds 
will spread S to near Cabo San Lazaro before diminishing early 
on Monday. Current long period NW swell in excess of 8 ft will 
continue through the offshore waters of Baja California and 
reach the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat night. High pressure will 
build over the Great Basin on Monday evening and will support 
fresh to near gale force N flow over the Gulf of California 
through Thu morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE to E winds will pulse to strong over the Gulf of 
Papagayo through this morning, then moderate to fresh winds are 
expected for the remainder of the forecast period. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador 
through Sat night, while light to gentle flow is across the Gulf 
of Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A fairly tight pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure 
center located near 31N130W and 1010 mb low pressure centered 
along the ITCZ near 09N126W is supporting fresh to strong trade 
winds across the waters south of 22N and west of 118W. Latest 
altimeter data show seas of 8 to 15 ft in the area of fresh 
trades. The low pressure will weaken gradually as it continues 
to shift westward along the ITCZ over the next couple of days. 

Large NW swell continues to spread out to the southeast waters. 
Seas are higher north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, particularly 
where the longer period NW swell mixes with the shorter period 
NE to E trade wind swell. The area of strong trades will 
diminish on Mon morning as a cold front approaches the NW 
forecast waters.

$$
NR