000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1353 UTC Mon Dec 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The next gale force gap wind event is expected to affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed morning through around midday Thu as a strong cold front crosses the Gulf of Mexico. Winds over Tehuantepec will abruptly increase to gale force during the morning and could peak near 45 kt Wed afternoon or evening. Strong winds Thu evening will taper to fresh by Fri evening. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1010 mb near 10N73W to 06N80W to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 07N122W to 09N129W TO 08N132W...then resumes from 06N137W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 120W and 128W and from 03N to 07N and W of 135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 09N between 105W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle NW to N winds prevail across most of the offshore waters of Baja California this morning. High pressure centered NW of the area near 32N129W is building gradually into the northern waters, and should cause winds to slowly increase across the area. Seas across the Baja waters remain 5-8 ft in NW swell, except 9 ft across the far outer waters. Seas are expected to slowly subside through Tue night. Inside the Gulf of California, satellite-derived wind data from around 05Z this morning indicated light and variable winds across most of the basin, with seas 3 ft or less. Winds are expected to become NW to N and slowly increase this evening through Tue evening. Fresh NW to N flow is then expected to prevail across central and southern sections of the Gulf through Wed morning with seas building to between 4 and 7 ft. Winds could be locally strong across the central Gulf Tue night. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, recent scatterometer data showed NW to W winds around 10 kt from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel, becoming light and variable well offshore. Fresh N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will become light and variable by this evening. The high pressure building across the Baja offshore waters tonight will build very weakly across the waters south of Cabo Corrientes tonight through Tue and generate generally NW to N winds of 10 to 15 kt across most of the remaining Mexican waters through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E winds will pulse to strong this morning and again tonight across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, then generally remain fresh Tue and Wed before increasing again Thu. Seas will peak between 8 and 9 ft downstream of the Gulf this morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1024 mb high pressure center is located near 32N129W is slowly building SSE into the subtropics. Recent scatterometer data generally showed NE to E tradewinds of 10 to 20 kt across the waters S of 25N and W of 120W. This high pressure will shift slightly S through Tue and induce a freshening trade wind flow across the region S of 22N to the ITCZ and W of 110W. NW swell propagating across the Baja offshore waters will also move into this area tonight to produce seas of 9-11 ft. The NW swell will continue to gradually decay through Tue night. However, increasing trade winds on the S side of the building high will compensate and keep seas around 8 ft in this area through mid week. A cold front is approaching the discussion area but is expected to stall just NW of 30N140W by tonight, then slowly weaken and lift N Tue. However, this front will introduce a new round of NW swell into the NW waters through the middle of next week. This swell will combine with wind waves generated by the fresh to strong trade winds S of 20N Wed night through Thu night to cause seas to build to between 10 and 13 ft by Fri night. $$ CAM