000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042129 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2120 UTC Wed Dec 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N84W to 06N90W to 1011 mb low pressure near 08N100W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N111W to 11N122W, then resumes near 09N130W to 05N137W. The ITCZ extends from 05N137W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N east of 82W, from 06N to 11N between 114W and 120W, and from 09N to 12N between 124W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak cold front has moved into the far outer Baja California Norte offshore waters, extending from 30N119W to 26N121W to 22N124W. Recent scatterometer data shows gentle winds on either side of the front over the offshore waters. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern across the region is supporting light to gentle breezes across most of the waters, except for moderate to fresh gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Recent altimeter data suggests the NW swell has subsided across the area with wave heights less than 8 ft. The cold front will weaken while crossing the northern waters tonight. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Thu night. Fresh NW to N flow will develop over the central and southern Gulf of California Thu night through Sat. Gale force winds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night through Sat as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front. Large NW swell will move across the waters off Baja California this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend, with seas peaking around 8 ft downstream of the Gulf each morning. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Decaying NW swell remains across much of the region, with seas 8 ft or greater generally south of 20N and west of 115W. Wave heights will continue subsiding through early Thu. A cold front extends from 30N119W to 26N121W to 22N124W, then transitions to a trough that extends to 15N129W. Partial scatterometer data shows moderate northerly winds west of the front/trough south of 24N. The front will weaken tonight as it continues moving eastward across the Baja California offshore waters. Low pressure analyzed near 12N126W is producing fresh to strong winds and locally higher seas SE of its center. Elsewhere, 1011 mb low pressure embedded along the monsoon trough near 08N100W is associated with fresh winds and 8-9 ft seas in its northern semicircle. Another cold front will move into the NW portion on Thu, cross the northern waters through Fri night, then stall and weaken on Sat. Associated large NW swell will move into the NW waters late Thu and propagate SE through the weekend. Seas will build greater than 12 ft over the northern waters Fri through Sat, peaking around 20 ft over the far NW portion. $$ Reinhart