000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040321 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0320 UTC Wed Dec 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 1011 mb low pressure near 07N97W to 09N116W to 12N124W to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N127W to 09N131W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 123W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 11N between 100W and 102W, and from 07N to 12N between 127W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh SE winds are likely occurring over the outer waters west of Punta Eugenia, where the pressure gradient is enhanced between a high pressure ridge across the northern waters and a low pressure trough just west of the region. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW winds continue over the Gulf of California. Farther south, northerly winds have diminished to fresh speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas remain 8-9 ft offshore of Baja California Sur in NW swell, while 8-19 ft seas are found well downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in mixed NE and SW swell. The NW swell across the Baja California waters will continue decaying tonight, with seas subsiding below 8 ft on Wed. A pre- frontal trough just west of the Baja offshore waters will dissipate late tonight, and a weak cold front will pass over the northern waters Wed and Wed night. Fresh NW to N flow will resume over the central and southern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri night. A gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible Fri night through Sat night as a cold front crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The next set of large NW swell will move across the waters off Baja California Sat through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through Thu, then diminish on Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador during the next several days, along with weak S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... ALtimeter data from this afternoon indicates NW swell dominates much of the region west of 120W, with the highest seas to 13 ft roughly along 10N and west of 130W. This swell will continue propagating SE while gradually decaying through Wed night. A low pressure trough extends from 29N122W to 24N125W, ahead of a cold front that is analyzed from 30N123W to 24N126W to 21N129W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds likely prevail north of 21N between the trough and a weak ridge across the Baja offshore waters. Another trough extends northward from 1009 mb low pressure near 11N127W to 20N125W. Scattered moderate convection persists east of the trough axis per the latest satellite imagery and lightning data. Elsewhere, a small area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft are found in the northern semicircle of 1011 mb low pressure embedded along the monsoon trough near 07N97W. The cold front over the northern waters will move eastward and weaken tonight through Wed night. Another large set of NW swell will move into the NW waters Thu night and propagate SE through the weekend, building seas greater than 12 ft over the NW portion Fri through Sat. $$ Reinhart